How Our AI Football Predictions Work
OddScore publishes AI football predictions for nine competitions. This page explains where the numbers come from, what each figure on a match card means, when predictions change and how we track whether they hold up over time.
Where Our Football Predictions Come From
The probabilities on OddScore come from the prediction model of Sportmonks, the football data provider behind our predictions. Next to every prediction we show the bookmaker odds we track for the same match, so you can see where the model and the market agree and where they differ.
We cover nine competitions: the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Champions League, the Europa League, the Europa Conference League and the UEFA Super Cup. Predictions are available for three markets: 1X2 (match result), both teams to score and Over/Under 2.5 goals. Not every match has a prediction for every market.
How to Read a Prediction
Model is the probability calculated by the Sportmonks model. Market is the probability implied by the bookmaker odds we track. When the two numbers are close, the model and the market broadly agree. When they are far apart, the model sees the match differently, and that is the moment to open the match page and look closer.
In the 1X2 market you see three probabilities: a home win (1), a draw (X) and an away win (2). The Pick is the outcome the model rates as most likely. It is not a guarantee and not a staking suggestion. A pick at 45% still means the other two outcomes together are more likely to happen.
The BTTS and Over 2.5 tabs show the same idea for the other two markets. You can see all of it in action on the upcoming football predictions page or in the football predictions for today.
When Predictions Are Updated
Predictions are refreshed once a day. During the day only the bookmaker odds and the market estimate move, so the Market figure can change while the Model figure stays the same until the next daily update. All kick-off times on the site are shown in UTC.
How We Track Prediction Accuracy
Every published prediction counts. A prediction is settled when the match ends and is marked as a win or a loss in the market it was made for. Results are not edited afterwards, and losing months stay in the record.
We show two measures. Win rate is the share of predictions that turned out correct. Brier score checks the quality of the probabilities themselves: it runs from 0 to 1, and lower is better. Read them together, because backing heavy favourites wins often but tells you little about how honest the probabilities are. The full record by market and by month is on the prediction accuracy page.
What Predictions Can and Cannot Do
A prediction is a probability, not a promise. A model is doing its job when its percentages match reality over time: picks rated around 70% should win roughly 70% of the time, which also means they lose about three times in ten.
Use our AI predictions as a second opinion, not as a reason to bet on every match. Betting is for adults aged 18 and over. Set a limit you can afford to lose, and if betting stops being fun, the support services linked at the bottom of every page can help.
Data Sources
We combine recent form, expected goals, home and away performance, head-to-head history, squad availability and market context. Each input is timestamped so the model can distinguish fresh information from stale records.
The goal is not to collect every possible number. It is to select the signals that can help explain why two teams are likely to create different match conditions.
Mathematical Formula
The formula weighs the most relevant evidence for the fixture. Recent form gives the model a short-term view, while longer history stops one result from dominating the score.
Expected goals, opponent strength and venue are combined into a probability estimate for each market. The formula stays readable so the result can be explained instead of treated as a black box.
AI Verification
A final AI pass checks whether the inputs agree with one another. It looks for unusual patterns, missing lineups, sudden changes and data that does not match the surrounding context.
When the model finds an anomaly, the confidence can be reduced or the pick can be held back. This step is designed to make the output more cautious when the evidence is weak.
Confidence Score
Confidence describes the strength of the available signal, not the certainty of the outcome. A high score means several independent inputs point in the same direction.
Read it alongside the selected market, odds and match context. A prediction remains a probability, and no score can guarantee a winning result.
AI Football Predictions FAQ
Where does the match data come from?
The predictions and their probabilities come from Sportmonks, a football data provider. We show bookmaker odds next to them so you can compare the model with the market.
How are the probabilities calculated?
By the Sportmonks prediction model. Each outcome in a market gets its own probability, so in the 1X2 market the home win, draw and away win add up to about 100%.
What is the difference between the Market and Model percentages?
Model is the probability from the Sportmonks model. Market is the probability implied by the bookmaker odds we track. The gap between them shows where the model and the market disagree.
What is the Pick?
The outcome the model rates as most likely in that market. It is the single most probable result, not a guaranteed one.
How often are predictions updated?
Once a day. The odds and the market estimate keep moving during the day, while the model prediction stays the same until the next daily update.
Why can a high-probability pick still lose?
Because a probability is not a certainty. A pick at 70% is expected to lose about three times in every ten. That is normal and is why we track accuracy over many matches, not one.
How do you measure prediction accuracy?
Every published prediction is settled after the match and counted. We show win rate and Brier score by market and by month on the prediction accuracy page.
Are these AI football predictions free?
Yes. These are free AI football predictions: you can view all of them without an account. Start with the upcoming matches or browse predictions by league.