AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 9

AC Milan

Bologna

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 — 17:30 UTC

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 56% 17 bookmakers Model 46%

Probability Distribution Home (46%) / Draw (26%) / Away (28%)

AC Milan win (1) 46%

1.77 OddScore Pick

Bologna win (2) 28%

5.60

Draw (X) 26%

3.90

Probability Distribution Yes — 53% | No — 47%

Both teams to score — Yes 53%

1.95

Both teams to score — No 47%

1.83

Probability Distribution Under — 50% | Over 2.5 — 50%

Under 2.5 goals 50%

1.84

Over 2.5 goals 50%

2.16

Both teams to score Yes — 53% vs No — 47% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 50% vs Under — 50% Under

Neural edge detected Model: 46% | Market: 56% -17.4% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The market estimate leans more strongly toward AC Milan because the supplied results show a clear season-level difference: Milan are unbeaten after eight matches, sit fourth, and have scored 16 goals, while Bologna sit 13th with two wins, four defeats, and eight goals. Recent head-to-head results also favour Milan, with three wins in the last four meetings, including both of the most recent matches.

The model estimate may be less pronounced because the underlying performance figures are closer than the table and results suggest. Milan’s expected goals for and against rates are 1.72 and 1.21, compared with Bologna’s 1.36 and 1.22, so the defensive difference is minimal and the attacking difference is moderate. Milan also have ten unavailable players, while Bologna have seven, and Milan’s recent away defeat by AFC Bournemouth adds a less favourable result to their otherwise strong recent sequence.

Gap of 9.8 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

AC Milan host Bologna in Serie A round 9 on 28 October 2026. Milan are fourth after eight matches, with five wins, three draws and no defeats. They have scored 16 goals and conceded seven, while Bologna sit 13th with two wins, two draws and four losses, having scored eight and conceded 10. Milan’s season figures include both teams scoring in 62.5% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 50%; Bologna’s corresponding rates are 50% and 37.5%.

The model gives Milan the highest probability of victory at 46.29%, with the draw at 25.88% and a Bologna win at 27.87%. It assigns a 53.05% probability to both teams scoring and 49.72% to over 2.5 goals, while over 1.5 goals is rated at 74.12%. Recent meetings also favour Milan: they won 3-0 in Bologna on 3 February 2026, following a 1-0 home win and a 3-1 home win in the previous two listed encounters. Bologna’s most recent victory in the fixture was a 2-1 home result on 27 February 2025. Milan will be without Adrien Rabiot, Alexis Saelemaekers, Diego Moreira, Filippo Terracciano, Gonçalo Ramos, Mario Gila, Matteo Gabbia, Pervis Estupiñán, Samuel Chukwueze and Warren Bondo, while Bologna are missing Arthur Theate, Emil Holm, Jens Odgaard, Oussama El Azzouzi, Riccardo Orsolini, Samuel Mbangula and Ukko Happonen.

AC Milan Form

Oct 28 Bologna 2 - 4 L

Oct 25 Udinese 2 - 0 W

Oct 22 AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 L

Oct 18 Atalanta 3 - 2 W

Oct 15 Salzburg 4 - 0 W

Bologna Form

Oct 28 AC Milan 4 - 2 W

Oct 24 Cagliari 2 - 0 W

Oct 17 Inter 1 - 3 L

Oct 11 Lecce 2 - 1 W

Sep 19 Torino 1 - 1 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Feb 3, 2026 Bologna 0 - 3 AC Milan Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Sep 14, 2025 AC Milan 1 - 0 Bologna Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

May 9, 2025 AC Milan 3 - 1 Bologna Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Feb 27, 2025 Bologna 2 - 1 AC Milan Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

AC Milan Bologna

1.74

xG per match

1.36

1.08

xG against

1.21

12.6

Shots per match

11.9

60.4

Possession, %

46.1

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

55.56

Over 2.5, %

44.44