Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Ajax host Atalanta in Round 2 of the Europa Conference League, and the model gives the home side a clear edge. Ajax have a 57.56% chance of winning, against 19.53% for a draw and 22.91% for an Atalanta win. The best available bookmaker prices of 2.21 for Ajax, 3.78 for the draw and 3.16 for Atalanta are less favourable to the hosts than the model is.

Ajax's form supports that view. They have played seven games this season with five wins, one draw and one defeat, and a goal record of 23 scored and 12 conceded. They sit fourth in the league phase table. Every one of those seven matches had both teams scoring and more than 2.5 goals. Atalanta have played three games with two wins and a draw, scoring four and conceding one. Both teams scored in a third of those games, as did over 2.5 goals. Their league position is listed as 42, and the sample is small.

Both sides have long absence lists. Ajax are without Ahmetcan Kaplan through suspension, and Amourricho van Axel Dongen, Anton Gaaei, Caio Henrique, Daley Blind, Josip Sutalo, Kasper Dolberg, Maher Carrizo, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Simon Adingra and Steven Berghuis through injury. Atalanta are missing Eljif Elmas and Gianluca Gaetano, who are suspended, plus injured players Franck Kessié, Giacomo Raspadori, Giorgio Scalvini, Isak Hien, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Odilon Kossounou, Thomas Kristensen and Thomas Pompei. In the goals markets, the model puts both teams scoring at 58.3% and over 2.5 goals at 62.89%. Over 3.5 goals is at 39.77%, and over 1.5 is at 82.76%. These are probabilities, not certainties, and the match could go either way.