Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Atalanta host Venezia in round 6 of Serie A, kicking off at 16:30 UTC on 12 October 2026. The model gives the home side a 52.31% chance of winning, with the draw at 24.41% and an away win at 23.22%. The bookmaker prices of 1.63 for Atalanta, 4.45 for the draw and 6.14 for Venezia point the same way: Atalanta are the favourites, but far from certain winners.

The form tables are less one-sided than the probabilities might suggest. Atalanta sit 11th after five matches, with two wins and three defeats and a goal record of 5 scored and 7 conceded. Venezia are 20th, having lost all five games, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Both teams have a thin margin for error, but Venezia's defensive record is clearly the weaker of the two. The last two meetings were a 2:0 Atalanta win away at Venezia in October 2024 and a 0:0 draw in March 2025. Both teams have injury problems. Atalanta are without Isak Hien, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Odilon Kossounou and Thomas Kristensen through injury, and Gianluca Gaetano is suspended. Venezia have nine players unavailable through injury: Andrea Adorante, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Bartol Franjic, Gianluca Busio, Juan Jesus, Marin Šverko, Matías Moreno, Ridgeciano Haps and Toma Bašić.

On goals, the model is close to evenly split. It gives 50.37% for over 2.5 goals and 49.63% for under, and puts both teams scoring at 51.88% against 48.12% for at least one side failing to score. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 74.33%, while over 3.5 stands at 27.78% and over 4.5 at 16%. Atalanta's recent matches have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, against 40% for each in Venezia's. Overall the numbers favour the hosts, but the probabilities leave room for a draw or a Venezia result.