AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 2

AZ Alkmaar

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

AFAS Stadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 65% 18 bookmakers Model 54%

Probability Distribution Home (54%) / Draw (22%) / Away (23%)

AZ Alkmaar win (1) 54%

1.50 OddScore Pick

Hapoel Be'er Sheva win (2) 23%

8.40

Draw (X) 22%

5.50

Probability Distribution No — 52% | Yes — 48%

Both teams to score — No 52%

2.28

Both teams to score — Yes 48%

1.75

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 50% | Under — 50%

Over 2.5 goals 50%

1.45

Under 2.5 goals 50%

3.00

Both teams to score Yes — 48% vs No — 52% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 50% vs Under — 50% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 54% | Market: 65% -16.8% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates make AZ Alkmaar the favourite, but the market puts them well further ahead than the model does. The data offers a few candidate explanations. AZ's only match this season was a defeat, and their expected goals conceded per match is high. A model that leans on those underlying numbers might temper its view of them, although both clubs' figures come from a single game. Hapoel Be'er Sheva's absence list is also much longer: nine players are unavailable, five of them suspended, against six for AZ. If the market weighs those absences more heavily than the model does, that could widen the gap between the two sides. Hapoel's recent run is mixed, with several clean sheets and wins alongside one heavy defeat. Line-ups are not yet announced, so the real availability is still uncertain. Beyond these points, the data does not settle why the estimates differ.

Gap of 11 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

AZ Alkmaar host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in Round 2 of the Europa League, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC on 15 October 2026. The model makes the home side the most likely winner at 54.32%. The draw is at 22.41% and an away win at 23.3%. The bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar is 1.33, which implies a considerably higher chance than the model gives. The model is therefore more cautious about the hosts than the market is. That still leaves a combined 45.7% for a draw or a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win, so the result is far from settled.

Both sides have played once this season. AZ Alkmaar lost 0:1 and sit at position 60, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva drew 0:0 and sit at position 43. One match is too small a sample to say much about form. Squad availability may matter more. AZ Alkmaar are without Denso Kasius, Jordy Clasie, Kees Smit, Lequincio Zeefuik and Stije Resink through injury, and Hobie Verhulst is suspended. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have a longer list. Dan Biton, Itay Rotman, João Victor and Lucas Ventura are injured, and Javon East, Muhammad Abu Rumi, Roy Levy, Yoan Stoyanov and Zahi Ahmed are suspended.

On goals, the model is split. Over 2.5 goals is at 50.11% and under 2.5 at 49.89%. Both teams scoring is at 48.13%, against 51.87% for at least one side failing to score. Over 1.5 goals is at 73.56%, and under 3.5 goals is at 71.13%. These figures point to a match of moderate scoring with a modest edge for the home side. None of this is a guarantee of any outcome.

AZ Alkmaar Form

Oct 22 Ararat-Armenia 4 - 0 W

Oct 15 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2 - 1 W

Sep 16 Sunderland 0 - 1 L

Hapoel Be'er Sheva Form

Oct 22 Union Saint-Gilloise 0 - 4 L

Oct 15 AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 L

Sep 16 Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 0 D

Aug 25 Sabah 2 - 5 L

Aug 19 Sabah 2 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

AZ Alkmaar Hapoel Be'er Sheva

1.71

xG per match

0.8

1.41

xG against

1.91

14.3

Shots per match

58.3

Possession, %

Goals this season

33.33

Both teams scored, %

33.33

66.67

Over 2.5, %

66.67