Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique Marseille Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Olympique Marseille

Thursday, 5 November 2026 — 20:00 UTC

BayArena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 66% 14 bookmakers Model 56%

Probability Distribution Home (56%) / Draw (21%) / Away (23%)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen win (1) 56%

1.46 OddScore Pick

Olympique Marseille win (2) 23%

7.00

Draw (X) 21%

5.14

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.67

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.20

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 60% | Under — 40%

Over 2.5 goals 60%

1.50

Under 2.5 goals 40%

2.75

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 60% vs Under — 40% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 56% | Market: 66% -15.8% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win in this fixture, with a confidence of 56%. Bayer 04 Leverkusen come into this one having taken 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 3.27 expected goals for and 0.46 against.

Olympique Marseille arrive with 3-0-2 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. At the current price of 1.46 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Form

Oct 25 TSG Hoffenheim 0 - 3 L

Oct 22 OFI 2 - 0 W

Oct 18 SC Freiburg 2 - 1 W

Oct 15 Lech Poznań 4 - 0 W

Oct 10 FSV Mainz 05 4 - 3 W

Olympique Marseille Form

Oct 25 Le Havre 4 - 3 W

Oct 22 Sturm Graz 0 - 1 L

Oct 18 Angers SCO 5 - 2 W

Oct 15 Olympiacos F.C. 0 - 1 L

Oct 11 Troyes 2 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Olympique Marseille

3.27

xG per match

0.91

0.46

xG against

1.21

Shots per match

Possession, %

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

33.33

Over 2.5, %

33.33