Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in round 6 of the Bundesliga, and the model gives the home side the edge. Leverkusen are rated at 55.72% to win, with the draw at 23.88% and a Freiburg win at 20.37%. The best bookmaker prices (1.73 home, 4.60 draw, 4.87 away) point the same way. Leverkusen are fourth in the table after three wins, a draw and a loss from five games, with a goal difference of 14:8. Freiburg are third with four wins and a draw, and have scored 14 and conceded 4. The visitors have the better defensive record and are unbeaten, so the model's lean toward the hosts is a probability and not a certainty.

Both teams have seen both teams score in 60% of their games and more than 2.5 goals in 80% of them. The model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 54.04%, against 45.96% for a clean sheet for at least one side. It gives over 2.5 goals 54.43% and under 2.5 45.57%. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 77.5%, over 3.5 at 32.75% and over 4.5 at 19.9%. That points to an open match, though not one the model expects to be extremely high-scoring.

Recent meetings have often been close or lively. Leverkusen won 5:1 in December 2024, Freiburg and Leverkusen drew 2:2 in May 2025, Leverkusen won 2:0 in October 2025, and the most recent game, in March 2026, finished 3:3. Team news matters too. Leverkusen are without twelve players, including Jonas Hofmann, Tim Oermann and Victor Boniface through suspension. Freiburg are missing eight, including Florent Muslija and Yuito Suzuki through suspension. Both squads are stretched, which adds uncertainty to the model's numbers.