Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 8
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
versus
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 14:30 UTC BayArena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 53% 17 bookmakers Model 52%
Probability Distribution Home (52%) / Draw (23%) / Away (25%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen win (1) 52%
1.85 OddScore Pick
VfB Stuttgart win (2) 25%
4.00
Draw (X) 23%
4.57
Probability Distribution Yes — 61% | No — 39%
Both teams to score — Yes 61%
1.36
Both teams to score — No 39%
3.30
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 62% | Under — 38%
Over 2.5 goals 62%
1.32
Under 2.5 goals 38%
3.60
Both teams to score Yes — 61% vs No — 39% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 62% vs Under — 38% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 52% | Market: 53% -0.9% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Bayer 04 Leverkusen host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga round 8, with the model giving the home side a 50.44% probability of victory. The draw is rated at 21.47%, while Stuttgart have a 28.09% chance of winning. Leverkusen sit fourth after seven matches with four wins, one draw and two defeats, having scored 16 goals and conceded 12. Stuttgart are 15th, with two wins and five defeats, and have scored 10 goals while conceding 13.

The available numbers point toward an open match. Both teams have scored in 57.14% of each side’s league matches this season, while the model assigns a 61.27% probability to both teams scoring. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 62.8%, and Leverkusen’s matches have gone over that line in 85.71% of cases. However, the recent head-to-head record gives Stuttgart encouragement: they won the last two meetings, 3-1 and 4-1, after Leverkusen’s 4-3 victory and a 0-0 draw in the preceding two fixtures.

Both squads have substantial unavailability. Leverkusen are missing 12 listed players through injury or suspension, including Victor Boniface, Jonas Hofmann and Nathan Tella. Stuttgart have 19 listed absences, including Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich and Tiago Tomás. The model therefore favors Leverkusen, but Stuttgart’s recent results in this fixture add uncertainty.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Form

Oct 25 TSG Hoffenheim 0 - 3 L
Oct 22 OFI 2 - 0 W
Oct 18 SC Freiburg 2 - 1 W
Oct 15 Lech Poznań 4 - 0 W
Oct 10 FSV Mainz 05 4 - 3 W

VfB Stuttgart Form

Oct 23 Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 - 3 L
Oct 20 Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 D
Oct 17 Hamburger SV 0 - 1 L
Oct 14 Slovan Bratislava 3 - 0 W
Oct 10 Paderborn 2 - 0 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
May 9, 2026 VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen MHPArena
Jan 10, 2026 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 4 VfB Stuttgart BayArena
Mar 16, 2025 VfB Stuttgart 3 - 4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen MHPArena
Nov 1, 2024 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 0 VfB Stuttgart BayArena

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Bayer 04 Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart
2.06
xG per match
2
1.5
xG against
1.94
18.1
Shots per match
16.9
57.9
Possession, %
56.6
16
Goals this season
10
57.14
Both teams scored, %
57.14
85.71
Over 2.5, %
57.14