Benfica vs Celtic Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 2

Benfica

Celtic

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 81% 18 bookmakers Model 58%

Probability Distribution Home (58%) / Draw (20%) / Away (22%)

Benfica win (1) 58%

1.26 OddScore Pick

Celtic win (2) 22%

15.25

Draw (X) 20%

8.50

Probability Distribution Yes — 62% | No — 38%

Both teams to score — Yes 62%

1.73

Both teams to score — No 38%

2.15

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 67% | Under — 33%

Over 2.5 goals 67%

1.25

Under 2.5 goals 33%

4.00

Both teams to score Yes — 62% vs No — 38% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 67% vs Under — 33% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 58% | Market: 81% -27.8% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The data points to a few things that could pull the two estimates apart, though it doesn't show which one the gap comes from. Both estimates favour Benfica. The market makes Benfica a much stronger favourite and gives Celtic a notably smaller chance than the model does.

Celtic's competition record is thin: one match played this season, a loss. Their last five results are mixed, with three losses and two wins, and their expected goals conceded per match is high. A model and a bookmaker could weight such a small, uneven sample differently. Celtic also have five players unavailable, including their goalkeeper and a centre-back, and line-ups aren't announced yet. The market may be pricing these absences more heavily than the model.

Benfica's profile is consistent: strong expected goals for, low against, and four wins in their last five, with two players out. Nothing in the data explains the exact size of the gap.

Gap of 22.4 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Benfica host Celtic in the second round of the Europa League on 15 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC. The model gives the home side a 58.47% chance of winning, against 19.64% for a draw and 21.89% for a Celtic victory. The best available bookmaker prices point the same way, with Benfica at 1.27, the draw at 6.6 and Celtic at 11.9. Benfica's season supports that view. In seven matches they have won five, drawn one and lost one, scoring 21 goals and conceding 6, and they sit third in the league.

Celtic's sample is far smaller. They have played one match this season, a defeat in which they scored 1 and conceded 3, and they are listed in league position 62. With so little data, their form says little, so the assessment leans more on the model than on their record. Both sides have absences. Benfica are without the suspended Gianluca Prestianni and the injured Gonçalo Oliveira. Celtic are missing Alistair Johnston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Kasper Høgh and Kasper Schmeichel through injury, plus the suspended Luis Palma.

On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 61.68% and a clean sheet for at least one side at 38.32%. It gives over 2.5 goals 66.82% and over 3.5 goals 44.64%, while over 1.5 stands at 85.39% and over 4.5 at 29.65%. Both teams have scored, and more than 2.5 goals have been scored, in 71.43% of Benfica's matches. Celtic's single match met both marks. These figures are probabilities, not certainties, and a favourite at home can still fail to win.

Benfica Form

Oct 22 Omonia Nicosia 4 - 1 W

Oct 15 Celtic 4 - 1 W

Sep 16 AC Milan 2 - 0 W

Aug 27 AGF 3 - 1 W

Aug 20 AGF 3 - 1 W

Celtic Form

Oct 22 Celta de Vigo 1 - 2 L

Oct 15 Benfica 1 - 4 L

Sep 17 Ferencvárosi 1 - 3 L

Aug 25 LASK 1 - 5 L

Aug 19 LASK 3 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Benfica Celtic

2.68

xG per match

1.22

0.97

xG against

1.88

21.2

Shots per match

12.7

57.8

Possession, %

51.3

Goals this season

77.78

Both teams scored, %

100

77.78

Over 2.5, %

100