Benfica vs Lech Poznań Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 4

Benfica

Lech Poznań

Thursday, 5 November 2026 — 20:00 UTC

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 80% 14 bookmakers Model 67%

Probability Distribution Home (67%) / Draw (19%) / Away (14%)

Benfica win (1) 67%

1.24 OddScore Pick

Draw (X) 19%

8.20

Lech Poznań win (2) 14%

14.00

Probability Distribution Yes — 52% | No — 48%

Both teams to score — Yes 52%

1.95

Both teams to score — No 48%

1.87

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 60% | Under — 40%

Over 2.5 goals 60%

1.38

Under 2.5 goals 40%

3.40

Both teams to score Yes — 52% vs No — 48% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 60% vs Under — 40% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 67% | Market: 80% -16.3% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Benfica win in this fixture, with a confidence of 67%. Benfica come into this one having taken 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 2.68 expected goals for and 0.97 against.

Lech Poznań arrive with 1-2-2 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 60%. At the current price of 1.24 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Benfica Form

Oct 22 Omonia Nicosia 4 - 1 W

Oct 15 Celtic 4 - 1 W

Sep 16 AC Milan 2 - 0 W

Aug 27 AGF 3 - 1 W

Aug 20 AGF 3 - 1 W

Lech Poznań Form

Oct 22 Sunderland 1 - 1 D

Oct 15 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 - 4 L

Sep 17 Crystal Palace 0 - 4 L

Aug 27 Thun 2 - 2 D

Aug 20 Thun 7 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Benfica Lech Poznań

2.68

xG per match

1.48

0.97

xG against

2.27

21.2

Shots per match

15.5

57.8

Possession, %

Goals this season

77.78

Both teams scored, %

28.57

77.78

Over 2.5, %

71.43