Beşiktaş win (1)
65%
3.37
OddScore Pick
65%
Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Tips
Europa League
• Round 3
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC
Beşiktaş Stadium
Beşiktaş Stadium
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
40%
18 bookmakers
Model
65%
65%
Probability Distribution
Home (65%) / Draw (18%) / Away (17%)
Draw (X)
18%
3.86
Crystal Palace win (2)
17%
3.15
Probability Distribution
Yes — 55% | No — 45%
Both teams to score — Yes
55%
1.50
Both teams to score — No
45%
2.82
Probability Distribution
Over 2.5 — 65% | Under — 35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
1.57
Under 2.5 goals
35%
2.52
Yes
Over
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The model's much stronger lean towards Beşiktaş fits the performance data it likely draws on. Beşiktaş have won seven of eight, with an expected-goals profile of about two created and under one conceded per match, while Crystal Palace's figures run the other way, conceding more than they create. Palace also have a heavy recent run, losing 0-5 at Brighton and 2-3 at Lyon. A model weighting underlying numbers and recent form would lean strongly home.
A market that is more cautious could reflect what the data shows about availability. Beşiktaş list fourteen unavailable players, including several injured forwards and many suspensions, and the line-ups are not yet announced. Palace list seven. Palace's season sample is only two matches, which leaves their record thin, and the data doesn't show how either side weighs that. The data can't say how much each estimate accounts for these absences, so the gap may partly reflect different treatment of squad depth.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Beşiktaş enter this Europa League round 3 fixture as the model's clear favourite, with a 65.03% chance of a home win against 18.4% for a draw and 16.57% for a Crystal Palace win. The home side have won seven of their eight matches this season, losing one, with a goal record of 15 scored and 4 conceded, and they sit second in the league phase table. Crystal Palace have played only twice, winning one and losing one with 6 goals for and 3 against, and they are 34th in the standings. Their small sample means their form figures should be read with caution.
Both sides have long absence lists. Beşiktaş are without Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ciro Immobile, Dušan Vlahović, Felix Uduokhai, Leandro Trossard, Milot Rashica and Vaclav Cerny through injury. Arda Kılıç, Can Keleş, Élan Ricardo, Emrecan Uzunhan, Fahri Ay, João Mário and Moatasem Al-Musrati are suspended. Crystal Palace are missing Ben Chilwell, Chadi Riad, Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Takehiro Tomiyasu through injury, and Axel Disasi and Rob Holding through suspension. The numbers above may not fully reflect how much these absences affect either squad.
On goals, the model gives 64.73% for over 2.5 and 42.48% for over 3.5, with 54.46% for both teams scoring. Beşiktaş's own matches have been lower scoring, with both teams scoring in 25% of them and over 2.5 goals in 37.5%. Palace's two games point the other way, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in both. The best available home win price is 2.17. That is longer than the model's probability would suggest, but a probability is not a guarantee, and the result could still go either way.
Beşiktaş Form
Oct 22
Crystal Palace
2 - 2
D
Oct 15
TSG Hoffenheim
3 - 2
W
Sep 17
Olympique Marseille
4 - 1
W
Aug 27
Kauno Žalgiris
0 - 1
L
Aug 20
Kauno Žalgiris
3 - 0
W
Crystal Palace Form
Oct 25
Newcastle United
0 - 2
L
Oct 22
Beşiktaş
2 - 2
D
Oct 18
Brighton & Hove Albion
0 - 5
L
Oct 15
Olympique Lyonnais
2 - 3
L
Oct 11
Nottingham Forest
3 - 1
W
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
1.72
xG per match
1.67
0.68
xG against
1.53
16.5
Shots per match
12
61
Possession, %
48
17
Goals this season
8
33.33
Both teams scored, %
66.67
44.44
Over 2.5, %
100