Bologna vs Inter Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 7

Bologna

Inter

Saturday, 17 October 2026 — 16:00 UTC

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 60% 18 bookmakers Model 46%

Probability Distribution Home (27%) / Draw (26%) / Away (46%)

Inter win (2) 46%

1.63 OddScore Pick

Bologna win (1) 27%

6.17

Draw (X) 26%

4.40

Probability Distribution No — 53% | Yes — 47%

Both teams to score — No 53%

2.15

Both teams to score — Yes 47%

1.67

Probability Distribution Under — 53% | Over 2.5 — 47%

Under 2.5 goals 53%

2.38

Over 2.5 goals 47%

1.68

Both teams to score Yes — 47% vs No — 53% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 47% vs Under — 53% Under

Neural edge detected Model: 46% | Market: 60% -23.1% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates see Inter as the most likely winner, but the market leans further that way. It leaves Bologna a smaller share, and the draw is lower too. The data points to a few things that could account for this.

Inter are unbeaten in the league, with five wins from six and high expected goals per match, while Bologna sit mid-table with one win. A market may lean harder on that contrast. A model could instead give more weight to Inter's high expected goals against and their recent defeats to Club Brugge and Real Madrid.

The head-to-head record is mixed, with a recent 3-3 draw and a Bologna win. That could lift the home and draw shares in a model.

Both sides have several injured players, and line-ups are not yet announced. The data does not show how either estimate treats those absences.

Gap of 13.9 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Bologna host Inter in round 7 of Serie A on 17 October, with the model favouring the visitors. Inter are given a 46.46% chance of winning, against 27.23% for Bologna and 26.3% for a draw. The bookmaker prices point the same way, with Inter at 1.65, the draw at 4.3 and Bologna at 5.93. Even so, the model leaves a combined 53.5% for a Bologna win or a draw, so this is far from settled.

The form tables show a clear gap. Inter lead the league in first place after five wins and a draw from six games, with 18 goals scored and 8 conceded. Bologna sit 14th with one win, two draws and three defeats, and a goal record of 5 scored and 7 conceded. Inter's games have been open: 83.33% have gone over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in 66.67%. Bologna's matches have been more restrained, with 33.33% going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in half of them. Both sides have injury concerns. Bologna are without Emil Holm, Jens Odgaard, Oussama El Azzouzi, Riccardo Orsolini, Samuel Mbangula and Ukko Happonen. Inter are missing Curtis Jones, Djed Spence, Federico Dimarco, Joaquín Correa and John Stones.

The recent head-to-head is more balanced than the league standings suggest. Bologna won 1:0 in April 2025, and the sides drew 2:2 in January 2025. Inter won 3:1 in January 2026, and the most recent meeting in May 2026 ended 3:3. On goals, the model puts the over 2.5 line at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%. Both teams scoring is 46.64% likely, against 53.36% for at least one side failing to score. These are probabilities, not certainties, and Bologna's draws and narrow results against Inter show that the favourite does not always win.

Bologna Form

Oct 28 AC Milan 4 - 2 W

Oct 24 Cagliari 2 - 0 W

Oct 17 Inter 1 - 3 L

Oct 11 Lecce 2 - 1 W

Sep 19 Torino 1 - 1 D

Inter Form

Oct 28 Venezia 2 - 0 W

Oct 25 Fiorentina 2 - 1 W

Oct 21 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 0 W

Oct 17 Bologna 3 - 1 W

Oct 13 Club Brugge 3 - 4 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

May 23, 2026 Bologna 3 - 3 Inter Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Jan 4, 2026 Inter 3 - 1 Bologna Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Apr 20, 2025 Bologna 1 - 0 Inter Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Jan 15, 2025 Inter 2 - 2 Bologna Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Bologna Inter

1.36

xG per match

2.82

1.21

xG against

1.03

11.9

Shots per match

22.3

46.1

Possession, %

63.1

Goals this season

55.56

Both teams scored, %

66.67

44.44

Over 2.5, %

77.78