Bologna vs Monza Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 10

Bologna

Monza

Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 14:00 UTC

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 56% 17 bookmakers Model 45%

Probability Distribution Home (45%) / Draw (26%) / Away (28%)

Bologna win (1) 45%

1.76 OddScore Pick

Monza win (2) 28%

5.09

Draw (X) 26%

4.07

Probability Distribution Yes — 56% | No — 44%

Both teams to score — Yes 56%

1.80

Both teams to score — No 44%

2.15

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 53% | Under — 47%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

1.89

Under 2.5 goals 47%

2.10

Both teams to score Yes — 56% vs No — 44% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 53% vs Under — 47% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 45% | Market: 56% -18.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates favour Bologna, but the market gives their home win more weight. Bologna’s three wins in five matches, compared with Monza’s two wins and three defeats, offer a plausible basis for that stronger preference. Bologna also sit higher in the table, have conceded fewer goals across the season and won both listed head-to-head meetings. Monza’s larger unavailable list could contribute, although the data does not establish the missing players’ relative importance.

The expected-goals figures suggest a closer contest: Monza’s attacking xG is slightly higher than Bologna’s, while Bologna have the better defensive xG. That balance could help explain a more cautious statistical estimate despite Bologna’s stronger results. Bologna also have nine injured players, and their two listed recent home matches produced a draw and a defeat. These are plausible competing signals; the supplied data does not reveal how either estimate weights them.

Gap of 10.4 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Bologna host Monza in Serie A’s 10th round on 31 October 2026. The model gives Bologna the highest probability of victory at 44.88%, compared with 28.59% for Monza and 26.53% for a draw. Bologna are 11th after nine matches with three wins, two draws and four defeats, while Monza sit 16th with two wins, one draw and six defeats. Bologna’s goal record is balanced at 12 scored and 12 conceded; Monza have scored 16 and conceded 22.

The goal markets suggest a reasonable chance of an open match. Both teams are projected to score at 56.33%, while the probability of over 2.5 goals is 52.32%. Monza’s season results have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals in 88.89% of their matches, compared with 55.56% and 44.44% respectively for Bologna. Bologna have won the two listed recent head-to-head meetings, 3-1 at home and 2-1 away.

Both squads have absences. Monza have 12 injured players and two suspended players listed, while Bologna have nine injured players listed. These availability issues add uncertainty to the comparison, although the model still places Bologna as the more likely winner.

Bologna Form

Oct 28 AC Milan 4 - 2 W

Oct 24 Cagliari 2 - 0 W

Oct 17 Inter 1 - 3 L

Oct 11 Lecce 2 - 1 W

Sep 19 Torino 1 - 1 D

Monza Form

Oct 28 Napoli 1 - 4 L

Oct 23 Torino 2 - 3 L

Oct 19 Cagliari 4 - 0 W

Oct 11 Lazio 1 - 3 L

Sep 18 Sassuolo 2 - 1 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Jan 18, 2025 Bologna 3 - 1 Monza Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Sep 22, 2024 Monza 1 - 2 Bologna U-Power Stadium

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Bologna Monza

1.36

xG per match

1.4

1.21

xG against

1.48

11.9

Shots per match

13.2

46.1

Possession, %

43.7

Goals this season

55.56

Both teams scored, %

88.89

44.44

Over 2.5, %

88.89