Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in round 5 of the Bundesliga, with kick-off at 18:30 UTC on 9 October 2026. Dortmund lead the table with four wins from four and a goal record of 9:2. Bremen are eighth with two wins, a draw and a loss, and a goal record of 8:8. The model gives Dortmund a 65.39% chance of winning, with 20.28% for a draw and 14.31% for a Bremen win. The best available bookmaker odds are 1.41 for the home side, 5.7 for the draw and 7.7 for the away side.

The goal markets look more balanced. Both teams have scored in every Bremen match this season, and 75% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. Dortmund's figures are lower, at 25% for both teams scoring and 50% for over 2.5 goals. The model puts both teams scoring at 49.01% and no at 50.99%. It gives 77.04% for over 1.5 goals, 55.33% for over 2.5 and 34.38% for over 3.5. Dortmund were unbeaten in the last four meetings, winning 3:0 in January 2026 and 2:0 away in May 2026. The other two meetings were a 2:2 draw and a 0:0 draw.

Both squads have significant absences. Dortmund are without Emre Can, Enzo dos Santos, Filippo Mane, Mussa Kaba and Nico Schlotterbeck through injury. Giannis Konstantelias, Justin Lerma, Ramy Bensebaini and Samuele Inácio are suspended. Bremen have nine players injured: Felix Agu, Jens Stage, Justin Njinmah, Keke Topp, Marvin Ducksch, Mitchell Weiser, Moussa Ndiaye, Oskar Wojcik and Senne Lynen. The numbers favour Dortmund, but they are probabilities and not a guaranteed outcome.