Juventus win (2)
49%
1.60
OddScore Pick
49%
Cagliari vs Juventus Prediction & Tips
Serie A
• Round 6
Cagliari
Juventus
Sunday, 11 October 2026 — 18:45 UTC
Sardegna Arena
Sardegna Arena
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
61%
19 bookmakers
Model
49%
49%
Probability Distribution
Home (25%) / Draw (27%) / Away (49%)
Draw (X)
27%
4.00
Cagliari win (1)
25%
7.20
Probability Distribution
No — 50% | Yes — 50%
Both teams to score — No
50%
1.76
Both teams to score — Yes
50%
2.11
Probability Distribution
Under — 54% | Over 2.5 — 46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
Over 2.5 goals
46%
2.13
No
Under
⇄ Why the estimates differ
Both sources see Juventus as the more likely winner, but the model leaves noticeably more room for Cagliari and the draw than the bookmakers do. The data offers a few things that could contribute to this. Cagliari's results look strong on the surface, with four wins in five and a fourth-place table position, yet their underlying numbers are weaker: they create less than a chance per match and concede well over one and a half expected goals. Juventus show the reverse, with high expected goals for, low against, and a seventh-place position that sits below what those numbers suggest. A method that leans on results may give Cagliari more credit than one that leans on chance quality. Both sides also have long injury lists, and Juventus's is longer, but line-ups are not yet announced, so how each side weighs those absences is unclear. The recent head-to-head is fairly even, which could also pull the model toward a closer game.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Cagliari host Juventus in round 6 of Serie A, with kick-off set for 18:45 UTC on 11 October 2026. The model gives Juventus the edge at 48.75%, against 26.51% for a draw and 24.74% for a Cagliari win. The bookmaker prices point the same way. Juventus are the clear favourites at 1.62, the draw is at 4.1 and Cagliari are at 7. The table tells a slightly different story. Cagliari are 4th after four wins and one defeat in five games, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded. Juventus are 7th with three wins, one draw and one defeat, and a goal record of 8:4.
Both sides have long injury lists. Juventus are without Andrea Cambiaso, Dušan Vlahović, Jeff Ekhator, Jérémie Boga, Juan Cabal, Kamil Grabara, Kenan Yıldız, Manuel Locatelli, Pape Matar Sarr and Weston McKennie. Cagliari are missing M'Bala Nzola, Mattia Felici, Riyad Idrissi, Yael Trepy, Yerry Mina and Zito Luvumbo. The model's probabilities and the injury lists are separate pieces of information, and the data does not show how much weight the model gives to these absences.
On goals, the model puts the chance of over 2.5 at 46.45% and under 2.5 at 53.55%. Over 1.5 is at 71.05%, and over 3.5 is at 24.9%. Both teams to score is almost evenly split, at 49.99% for yes and 50.01% for no. This fits the recent form. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 20% of their five games, and both teams scored in 40% of Juventus's matches and 20% of Cagliari's. The last four meetings were low scoring: Cagliari won 1:0 in January 2026, Juventus won 2:1 in November 2025, Juventus won 1:0 in February 2025, and the sides drew 1:1 in October 2024. Juventus are favoured, but these are probabilities and the result is not certain.
Cagliari Form
Oct 27
Roma
2 - 4
L
Oct 24
Bologna
0 - 2
L
Oct 19
Monza
0 - 4
L
Oct 11
Juventus
1 - 1
D
Sep 19
Udinese
1 - 0
W
Juventus Form
Oct 28
Genoa
0 - 2
L
Oct 25
Lecce
2 - 0
W
Oct 22
Rennes
2 - 2
D
Oct 18
Lazio
0 - 3
L
Oct 15
Celta de Vigo
2 - 1
W
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Jan 17, 2026
Cagliari
1 - 0
Juventus
Sardegna Arena
Nov 29, 2025
Juventus
2 - 1
Cagliari
Juventus Stadium
Feb 23, 2025
Cagliari
0 - 1
Juventus
Sardegna Arena
Oct 6, 2024
Juventus
1 - 1
Cagliari
Juventus Stadium
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Cagliari
Juventus
1.11
xG per match
1.4
1.84
xG against
0.69
10.8
Shots per match
15.9
42.4
Possession, %
58.7
8
Goals this season
11
33.33
Both teams scored, %
33.33
33.33
Over 2.5, %
22.22