Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Celta de Vigo host Deportivo Alavés in Round 9 of La Liga, and the model gives the home side the edge without making them clear favourites. Celta are rated at 42% to win, with the draw at 26.81% and an Alavés win at 31.16%. The bookmaker prices, 2.26 for the home win, 3.44 for the draw and 3.6 for the away win, point the same way. Celta sit 11th after eight games, with one win, five draws and two defeats, and a goal record of 8 scored and 6 conceded. Alavés are 7th with three wins, two draws and three defeats, and have scored 12 and conceded 8.

The sides' recent numbers differ in how open their games have been. Alavés have seen both teams score in 50% of their matches and over 2.5 goals in 50%. For Celta the figures are 37.5% and 25%. The model is close to an even split on these markets. Both teams to score is 52.46% likely, and over 2.5 goals is 48.03%, against 51.97% for under. Over 1.5 goals comes out at 72.76%, while over 3.5 is 25.44%. That suggests a match with a fair chance of goals at both ends, though not a particularly high-scoring one.

Team news matters for Celta in particular. They are without Carl Starfelt, Fer López, Iago Aspas, Jones El-Abdellaoui and Miguel Román through injury, and Óscar Mingueza is suspended. Alavés are missing Abde Rebbach, Joan Jordán, Mikel Rodriguez and Ville Koski through injury, and Facundo Garcés is suspended. The recent head-to-head is fairly balanced. Celta won twice, Alavés won once, and one game was drawn. The latest meeting, in March 2026, ended 3:4 to Alavés. These probabilities describe likelihoods only, and any single match can go against them.