Celtic vs Celta de Vigo Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 3

Celtic

Celta de Vigo

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Celtic Park

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 37% 18 bookmakers Model 58%

Probability Distribution Home (58%) / Draw (24%) / Away (18%)

Celtic win (1) 58%

2.75 OddScore Pick

Draw (X) 24%

3.65

Celta de Vigo win (2) 18%

2.67

Probability Distribution No — 51% | Yes — 49%

Both teams to score — No 51%

2.55

Both teams to score — Yes 49%

1.53

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 51% | Under — 49%

Over 2.5 goals 51%

1.69

Under 2.5 goals 49%

2.25

Both teams to score Yes — 49% vs No — 51% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 51% vs Under — 49% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 58% | Market: 37% +55.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The two estimates disagree about which side is more likely to win, and the data points to a few things that could pull them apart. Celtic's recent results are poor: three losses in their last four, with heavy defeats away at Benfica and LASK. Their expected goals against, at close to three per match, is also high. A model that weighs underlying numbers and a longer run of games could read this differently from a market that reacts to a short, damaging sequence. Celtic have five players unavailable, including their first-choice goalkeeper, Kasper Schmeichel, and Cameron Carter-Vickers. Bookmakers may price that in more heavily.

Celta de Vigo have a more modest expected goals record, and their last five are mixed. They also have eight players unavailable, including Iago Aspas and Borja Iglesias, which cuts the other way. Both clubs have played only two matches this season, so the sample is thin. Neither the data nor the season record clearly explains the size of the gap.

Gap of 20.7 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Celtic host Celta de Vigo in round 3 of the Europa League, kicking off at 19:00 UTC. The model rates the home side as clear favourites, with a 57.79% chance of a Celtic win, 23.76% for a draw and 18.44% for an away win. The bookmaker prices are less one-sided: the best available odds are 2.75 on Celtic and 2.60 on Celta. The model is therefore considerably more positive about the hosts than the market. A probability of this size still leaves a meaningful chance of a different result.

Neither side arrives in good form. Both have played two matches this season and lost both. Celtic have scored 2 and conceded 7, and both of their games saw both teams score and more than 2.5 goals. Celta have scored 1 and conceded 3, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in half of their games. Celta are listed at league position 63 and Celtic at 71. Celtic's defensive record is the weaker of the two, which suggests they may give up chances even as the model favours them.

Both squads have significant absences. Celtic are without Alistair Johnston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Kasper Høgh and Kasper Schmeichel through injury, and Luis Palma is suspended. Celta have injuries to Borja Iglesias, Carl Starfelt, Fer López, Iago Aspas, Jones El-Abdellaoui, Miguel Román and Pablo Durán, and Óscar Mingueza is suspended. On goals, the model gives 51.21% for over 2.5 and 48.79% for under, so it is almost evenly split. Both teams scoring is rated at 48.97%, and over 1.5 goals at 75.17%. Over 3.5 goals stands at 29.29%. The numbers point to a moderately open game, but they describe likelihoods, not a result.

Celtic Form

Oct 22 Celta de Vigo 1 - 2 L

Oct 15 Benfica 1 - 4 L

Sep 17 Ferencvárosi 1 - 3 L

Aug 25 LASK 1 - 5 L

Aug 19 LASK 3 - 0 W

Celta de Vigo Form

Oct 25 Real Betis 0 - 0 D

Oct 22 Celtic 2 - 1 W

Oct 18 Deportivo Alavés 2 - 1 W

Oct 15 Juventus 1 - 2 L

Oct 11 Elche 0 - 0 D

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Celtic Celta de Vigo

1.22

xG per match

1.21

1.88

xG against

1.04

12.7

Shots per match

16.7

51.3

Possession, %

52.3

Goals this season

100

Both teams scored, %

66.67

100

Over 2.5, %

66.67