Como vs Venezia Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 10

Como

Venezia

Sunday, 1 November 2026 — 11:30 UTC

Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 73% 15 bookmakers Model 60%

Probability Distribution Home (60%) / Draw (22%) / Away (18%)

Como win (1) 60%

1.34 OddScore Pick

Draw (X) 22%

6.26

Venezia win (2) 18%

9.50

Probability Distribution No — 50% | Yes — 50%

Both teams to score — No 50%

2.15

Both teams to score — Yes 50%

1.70

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

1.41

Under 2.5 goals 46%

3.08

Both teams to score Yes — 50% vs No — 50% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 60% | Market: 73% -18.0% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The market’s stronger preference for Como is consistent with the contrast in results: Como sit fourth with six wins from nine league matches, while Venezia are bottom with eight defeats. Como have also won four of their last five listed matches, scoring freely, whereas Venezia have lost four and scored only twice. Those results offer a plausible basis for a more pronounced home advantage.

The expected-goals figures show a narrower attacking difference than the actual scoring records: Venezia’s expected goals per match are close to Como’s, despite their much lower goal total. Como’s expected goals conceded also exceed their actual concession rate. These contrasts could help explain a more cautious statistical estimate. Both teams have ten listed absentees, and the last two meetings were draws, although the supplied data does not establish how either estimate weights these factors.

Gap of 13.2 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Como host Venezia in round 10 of Serie A on 1 November 2026, with kick-off at 11:30 UTC. The season records favour the home side: Como are fourth after six wins, two draws and one defeat in nine matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding eight. Venezia sit 20th with one win and eight defeats, having scored six goals and conceded 19. The model reflects that difference, assigning Como a 60.08% chance of victory, compared with 22.16% for a draw and 17.75% for a Venezia win. However, the two listed recent meetings both finished level: 1–1 at Como and 2–2 at Venezia.

The goals outlook is less decisive than the match-result probabilities. The model gives over 2.5 goals a 53.53% probability, while both teams scoring is almost evenly balanced at 49.83% for yes and 50.17% for no. Como’s season figures show both teams scoring in 66.67% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 55.56%; Venezia’s figure is 33.33% for each measure. Under 3.5 goals carries a higher model probability of 68.7%, suggesting more support for a restrained total than a particularly high-scoring match.

Availability is another consideration, with ten players listed as unavailable for each side. All ten Venezia absences are through injury, while Como have six suspensions and four injuries. Como’s stronger results and goal record support their status as favourites, but the model still leaves meaningful scope for a draw or away victory.

Como Form

Oct 27 Torino 3 - 1 W

Oct 24 Sassuolo 2 - 0 W

Oct 21 Manchester United 4 - 1 W

Oct 18 Fiorentina 3 - 1 W

Oct 14 Feyenoord 2 - 3 L

Venezia Form

Oct 28 Inter 0 - 2 L

Oct 25 Genoa 0 - 1 L

Oct 17 Napoli 1 - 0 W

Oct 12 Atalanta 1 - 3 L

Sep 19 Lazio 0 - 2 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Mar 8, 2025 Como 1 - 1 Venezia Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Dec 8, 2024 Venezia 2 - 2 Como Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Como Venezia

1.88

xG per match

1.6

1.4

xG against

1.95

20.3

Shots per match

14.3

61.7

Possession, %

52.1

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

33.33

55.56

Over 2.5, %

33.33