Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 2

Crvena Zvezda

FC København

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

Stadion Rajko Mitić

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 43% 17 bookmakers Model 56%

Probability Distribution Home (56%) / Draw (21%) / Away (23%)

Crvena Zvezda win (1) 56%

2.35 OddScore Pick

FC København win (2) 23%

3.30

Draw (X) 21%

3.67

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.66

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.26

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 63% | Under — 37%

Over 2.5 goals 63%

1.82

Under 2.5 goals 37%

2.16

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 63% vs Under — 37% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 56% | Market: 43% +29.9% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The data shows several things that could pull the two estimates apart, mostly through how much weight each recent record gets. Crvena Zvezda's recent results are poor, with four defeats in five, and their expected goals against per match is very high compared with what they create. A model leaning on home advantage and some other inputs might look past this, while a market that prices in that defensive record would hold the home side's edge lower. FC København arrive with a much stronger profile: first in their table, five wins and two draws from seven, and a clearly positive expected goals balance. That form may account for the market giving the visitors and the draw more room.

Zvezda's season sample is only one match, so any rating built on it is thin. Both sides have absences, and no line-ups are confirmed, so the data cannot say how much those affect each estimate.

Gap of 12.9 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Crvena Zvezda win in this fixture, with a confidence of 56%. Crvena Zvezda come into this one having taken 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 0.98 expected goals for and 1.71 against.

FC København arrive with 3-2-0 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%. At the current price of 2.35 that leaves a 29.9% edge over the market.

Crvena Zvezda Form

Oct 22 FC København 2 - 2 D

Oct 15 Lugano 2 - 3 L

Aug 27 Viktoria Plzeň 1 - 5 L

Aug 20 Viktoria Plzeň 3 - 0 W

Aug 11 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0 - 2 L

FC København Form

Oct 22 Crvena Zvezda 2 - 2 D

Oct 15 Sporting Braga 3 - 0 W

Aug 27 Inter Turku 4 - 1 W

Aug 20 Inter Turku 0 - 0 D

Aug 12 Debrecen 5 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Crvena Zvezda FC København

0.98

xG per match

1.64

1.71

xG against

0.79

Shots per match

14.2

58.5

Possession, %

Goals this season

100

Both teams scored, %

62.5

100

Over 2.5, %

87.5