CSKA Sofia vs Monaco Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 1

CSKA Sofia

Monaco

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

Stadion Bâlgarska Armija

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 63% 19 bookmakers Model 46%

Probability Distribution Home (30%) / Draw (24%) / Away (46%)

Monaco win (2) 46%

1.55 OddScore Pick

CSKA Sofia win (1) 30%

6.80

Draw (X) 24%

5.00

Probability Distribution Yes — 53% | No — 47%

Both teams to score — Yes 53%

1.72

Both teams to score — No 47%

2.20

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 53% | Under — 47%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

1.60

Under 2.5 goals 47%

2.53

Both teams to score Yes — 53% vs No — 47% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 53% vs Under — 47% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 46% | Market: 63% -27.3% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates favour Monaco, but the model leaves clearly more room for CSKA Sofia and for a draw than the bookmaker median does. One possible source of the gap is the difference between underlying numbers and recent results. CSKA Sofia's expected goals per match are higher than Monaco's, and their expected goals against are also a little higher. A model built on such inputs could reflect that. Their last five results, though, include three defeats, two of them by three goals. Monaco are unbeaten in their last five, including wins over Paris Saint Germain and Marseille, and have won both of their games this season. A market may give more weight to that form.

Squad availability is another candidate. Monaco have six players unavailable, five injured and one suspended, against two suspended for CSKA Sofia. Line-ups are not yet announced, so the data does not show how either estimate accounts for this. Nothing here singles out one factor as the main driver.

Gap of 17.3 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

CSKA Sofia host Monaco in Round 1 of the Europa Conference League, with kick-off at 16:45 UTC on 15 October 2026. The model makes the visitors the most likely winners at 46.13%. It gives the hosts 29.84% and a draw 24.03%. The best available bookmaker prices point the same way, with Monaco at 1.53, the draw at 4.7 and CSKA Sofia at 6.5. Monaco are favoured, but the hosts still have a meaningful chance of a result.

Monaco arrive with two wins from two this season and a goal tally of 7:3. Both of their matches saw both teams score and more than 2.5 goals. Their league position is listed as 47. The goals market in the model reflects that open profile: over 2.5 goals is 53.51% and both teams to score is 53%. Over 1.5 goals is 76.24%, over 3.5 is 32.96% and over 4.5 is 19.99%. The model therefore leans slightly towards a game with goals, but it does not see a high-scoring match as the main scenario.

Team news matters for both sides. Monaco are without Aleksandr Golovin, Anis Soubeir, Ansu Fati, Matthis Abline and Mohammed Salisu through injury, and Paris Brunner is suspended. CSKA Sofia lose Mohamed Brahimi and Stefano Sensi to suspension. These absences could narrow the gap between the teams, though the model still favours Monaco. All figures are probabilities, not guarantees.

CSKA Sofia Form

Oct 22 Nordsjælland 2 - 2 D

Oct 15 Monaco 1 - 2 L

Aug 27 OFI 0 - 2 L

Aug 20 OFI 0 - 3 L

Aug 13 Maccabi Tel Aviv 1 - 3 L

Monaco Form

Oct 25 LOSC Lille 1 - 1 D

Oct 22 SC Freiburg 3 - 0 W

Oct 18 Lorient 0 - 1 L

Oct 15 CSKA Sofia 2 - 1 W

Oct 10 Toulouse 2 - 2 D

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

CSKA Sofia Monaco

1.51

xG per match

1.53

1.23

xG against

1.25

19.5

Shots per match

12.5

48.5

Possession, %

53.5

Goals this season

100

Both teams scored, %

100

Over 2.5, %

100