Everton win (1)
42%
3.25
OddScore Pick
42%
Everton vs Chelsea Prediction & Tips
Premier League
• Round 7
Everton
Chelsea
Saturday, 17 October 2026 — 11:30 UTC
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Hill Dickinson Stadium
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
41%
18 bookmakers
Model
42%
42%
Probability Distribution
Home (42%) / Draw (25%) / Away (34%)
Chelsea win (2)
34%
2.43
Draw (X)
25%
3.80
Probability Distribution
Yes — 60% | No — 40%
Both teams to score — Yes
60%
1.55
Both teams to score — No
40%
2.55
Probability Distribution
Over 2.5 — 59% | Under — 41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
1.75
Under 2.5 goals
41%
2.30
Yes
Over
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The data points to a few places where the two views could diverge. Everton are unbeaten in six matches, sit fifth, and play at home. Their expected goals for and against are almost level, and they won the most recent meeting 3-0. A model weighting that record and venue would naturally lean toward Everton. Chelsea have scored far more goals this season, and their expected goals for are slightly higher than Everton's. That attacking output could be what pulls the market toward them. Chelsea also concede freely, with an expected goals against figure above Everton's and a 0-3 loss in their last five. The long list of Chelsea absences, including two suspensions, would not obviously explain a market tilt toward them. Lineups are not yet announced, so the data cannot say how those absences play out. Beyond these contrasts, nothing here clearly accounts for the full gap.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Everton host Chelsea in Round 7 of the Premier League, with kick-off at 11:30 UTC on 17 October 2026. The model gives the home side a 41.94% chance of winning, with 24.47% for a draw and 33.58% for an away win. Everton come in fifth after six games with two wins and four draws, and they are unbeaten. Their goal record of 8 scored and 5 conceded points to tight matches. Both teams scored in half of their games, and only a third went over 2.5 goals. Chelsea sit sixth with three wins, one draw and two defeats. Their 15 goals scored and 13 conceded suggest a more open pattern.
Chelsea's numbers support that. Both teams have scored in 83.33% of their matches, and every one of their six games has gone over 2.5 goals. The model rates both teams scoring at 60.37%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 58.8% and over 1.5 at 80.4%. Over 3.5 is at 35.53% and over 4.5 at 20.75%. These figures sit between the profiles of the two teams. Everton's matches have tended to be lower scoring, and Chelsea's have not.
Recent meetings have mostly favoured Chelsea. They won 1-0 in April 2025 and 2-0 in December 2025, but Everton won 3-0 in March 2026. The December 2024 fixture ended 0-0. Chelsea have a long list of absentees. Eleven players are injured, among them Moisés Caicedo, João Pedro and João Félix. Roméo Lavia and Wesley Fofana are suspended. Everton are without Christian Nørgaard and Hayden Hackney, both injured. The model gives Everton a modest edge, but it is a probability and not a certainty. A draw or a Chelsea win both remain realistic outcomes.
Everton Form
Oct 24
Arsenal
0 - 2
L
Oct 17
Chelsea
0 - 2
L
Oct 11
Hull City
2 - 2
D
Sep 19
Ipswich Town
1 - 0
W
Sep 12
Tottenham Hotspur
0 - 0
D
Chelsea Form
Oct 24
Tottenham Hotspur
0 - 2
L
Oct 17
Everton
2 - 0
W
Oct 10
AFC Bournemouth
5 - 1
W
Sep 18
Brentford
0 - 3
L
Sep 12
Hull City
2 - 2
D
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Mar 21, 2026
Everton
3 - 0
Chelsea
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Dec 13, 2025
Chelsea
2 - 0
Everton
Stamford Bridge
Apr 26, 2025
Chelsea
1 - 0
Everton
Stamford Bridge
Dec 22, 2024
Everton
0 - 0
Chelsea
Goodison Park
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Everton
Chelsea
1.18
xG per match
1.33
1.51
xG against
1.38
13.6
Shots per match
13.4
46.5
Possession, %
46.4
8
Goals this season
17
37.5
Both teams scored, %
62.5
25
Over 2.5, %
75