FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

FC Augsburg host FC Bayern München in round 5 of the Bundesliga, with the model giving the visitors a clear edge. Bayern are rated at 67.82% to win, against 18.35% for a draw and 13.86% for Augsburg. The bookmaker prices point the same way, with Bayern at 1.21 and Augsburg at 12.3. Both sides have started well. Augsburg sit fourth after four games with two wins, a draw and a defeat, and a goal difference of 11:6. Bayern are second with three wins and a draw, having scored 14 and conceded only 2.

The goal markets suggest an open match, though less one-sided than the 1x2 numbers. The model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 53.36%, against 46.64% for at least one clean sheet. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 81.64% and over 2.5 at 63.09%. Over 3.5 falls to 44.42%, and over 4.5 to 32.77%. Augsburg's matches this season have all gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in 75% of them. Bayern's games have been less balanced: both teams scored in 50% of them, and 75% went over 2.5 goals. That fits with their strong defensive record.

The recent head-to-head is more competitive than the probabilities alone suggest. Bayern won 3:0 in November 2024, 3:1 in April 2025 and 3:2 in August 2025. Augsburg then won 2:1 in January 2026, so the underdog has already beaten this opponent once in the last four meetings. Augsburg also have more absentees, with Anton Kade, Faik Sakar, Reece Oxford, Sima Suso, Steve Mounié and Tim Breithaupt all injured. Bayern are without Lennart Karl and Serge Gnabry. Bayern are favoured, but a draw or an Augsburg win still has a combined probability of about 32%.