FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 8

FC Augsburg

SC Freiburg

Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 14:30 UTC

WWK Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 43% 17 bookmakers Model 39%

Probability Distribution Home (39%) / Draw (26%) / Away (35%)

FC Augsburg win (1) 39%

3.17 OddScore Pick

SC Freiburg win (2) 35%

2.25

Draw (X) 26%

4.07

Probability Distribution Yes — 58% | No — 42%

Both teams to score — Yes 58%

1.44

Both teams to score — No 42%

2.80

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%

Over 2.5 goals 54%

1.50

Under 2.5 goals 46%

2.64

Both teams to score Yes — 58% vs No — 42% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 32% +21.5% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The model’s stronger home assessment could be associated with Augsburg’s unbeaten home results in the listed run, including draws against Bayern and Leverkusen, their higher attacking xG, and recent head-to-head results that include an Augsburg win and two draws. Their recent matches have also been high-scoring, which may support a more competitive home projection. The market estimate may reflect Freiburg’s stronger season record, higher table position, better goal difference, and much lower defensive xG allowed. Freiburg also have two wins in their last five, while Augsburg have no wins in that sequence. The gap may additionally reflect the different unavailable players: Augsburg list nine injuries, while Freiburg list several injuries and two suspensions. These factors point in different directions across home form, season performance, defensive metrics, and squad availability.

Gap of 8.1 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

FC Augsburg host SC Freiburg in Bundesliga round 8, with kick-off scheduled for 14:30 UTC on 31 October 2026. Freiburg arrive third in the league after seven matches, with four wins, one draw and two defeats, while Augsburg are ninth with two wins, three draws and two defeats. Freiburg have scored 16 goals and conceded nine; Augsburg have scored 17 and conceded 13. Both teams have recorded over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of their matches this season. Both teams scored in 71.43% of Freiburg’s matches and 85.71% of Augsburg’s.

The model gives Augsburg a 39.25% probability of winning, compared with 34.79% for Freiburg and 25.96% for a draw, making the home side the narrowest-probability outcome. It assigns a 57.98% probability to both teams scoring and 54.53% to over 2.5 goals. Recent meetings have been mixed: the last encounter ended 2-2, Augsburg won 3-1 in August 2025, the March 2025 meeting finished 0-0, and Freiburg won 3-1 in October 2024. Freiburg are missing Berkay Yilmaz, Bruno Ifechukwu Ogbus, Cyriaque Irié, Derry Scherhant, Manuel Gulde, Niklas Beste and Patrick Osterhage through injury, along with suspended Florent Muslija and Yuito Suzuki. Augsburg have nine injured players unavailable: Alexis Claude-Maurice, Anton Kade, Faik Sakar, Marius Wolf, Noahkai Banks, Reece Oxford, Sima Suso, Steve Mounié and Tim Breithaupt.

FC Augsburg Form

Oct 24 FC Union Berlin 1 - 1 D

Oct 17 Elversberg 3 - 4 L

Oct 10 FC Bayern München 2 - 2 D

Sep 19 Werder Bremen 2 - 3 L

Sep 12 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 - 2 D

SC Freiburg Form

Oct 25 FC Bayern München 1 - 3 L

Oct 22 Monaco 0 - 3 L

Oct 18 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 - 2 L

Oct 15 Jablonec 3 - 2 W

Oct 11 Schalke 04 2 - 1 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Jan 18, 2026 FC Augsburg 2 - 2 SC Freiburg WWK Arena

Aug 23, 2025 SC Freiburg 1 - 3 FC Augsburg Europa-Park Stadion

Mar 2, 2025 FC Augsburg 0 - 0 SC Freiburg WWK Arena

Oct 19, 2024 SC Freiburg 3 - 1 FC Augsburg Europa-Park Stadion

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

FC Augsburg SC Freiburg

2.11

xG per match

1.73

2.86

xG against

1.04

17.4

Shots per match

16.1

44.9

Possession, %

51.3

Goals this season

85.71

Both teams scored, %

71.43

85.71

Over 2.5, %

85.71