FC Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 8
FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München
versus
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 31 October 2026 — 17:30 UTC Allianz Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 71% 17 bookmakers Model 61%
Probability Distribution Home (61%) / Draw (20%) / Away (19%)
FC Bayern München win (1) 61%
1.40 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 20%
6.29
Borussia Dortmund win (2) 19%
8.50
Probability Distribution Yes — 62% | No — 38%
Both teams to score — Yes 62%
1.45
Both teams to score — No 38%
2.80
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 69% | Under — 31%
Over 2.5 goals 69%
1.27
Under 2.5 goals 31%
4.20
Both teams to score Yes — 62% vs No — 38% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 69% vs Under — 31% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 61% | Market: 71% -13.4% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

FC Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga round 8, with both teams unbeaten after seven matches. Bayern lead the table with five wins and two draws, while Dortmund are second with the same record. Bayern’s stronger attacking record is clear: they have scored 25 goals and conceded six, compared with Dortmund’s 12 goals and four conceded. Their seasonal attacking profiles also differ, with Bayern recording over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of matches and both teams scoring in 71.43%, while Dortmund’s figures are 42.86% and 28.57%.

The model gives Bayern a 62.45% probability of winning, compared with 19.95% for a draw and 17.63% for a Dortmund victory. It also assigns a 60.48% probability to both teams scoring and 68% to over 2.5 goals. Recent meetings have favoured Bayern, who won the last two 3:2 and 2:1, after a 2:2 draw and a 1:1 draw in the previous matches listed. Both squads have unavailable players through injuries or suspensions, including Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich and Manuel Neuer for Bayern, and Nico Schlotterbeck, Julian Ryerson and Ramy Bensebaini for Dortmund. These probabilities indicate Bayern as the more likely winner, while the goal markets point toward an open contest.

FC Bayern München Form

Oct 25 SC Freiburg 3 - 1 W
Oct 21 Arsenal 2 - 2 D
Oct 17 RB Leipzig 6 - 1 W
Oct 13 Viking 3 - 3 D
Oct 10 FC Augsburg 2 - 2 D

Borussia Dortmund Form

Oct 24 Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 W
Oct 20 Sabah 2 - 1 W
Oct 17 FC Union Berlin 0 - 0 D
Oct 14 Bodø / Glimt 0 - 1 L
Oct 9 Werder Bremen 2 - 2 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Feb 28, 2026 Borussia Dortmund 2 - 3 FC Bayern München Signal Iduna Park
Oct 18, 2025 FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund Allianz Arena
Apr 12, 2025 FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Borussia Dortmund Allianz Arena
Nov 30, 2024 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 1 FC Bayern München Signal Iduna Park

Key Stats & Team Metrics

FC Bayern München Borussia Dortmund
3.03
xG per match
1.66
0.9
xG against
0.84
23.1
Shots per match
15.6
67.1
Possession, %
55.4
25
Goals this season
12
71.43
Both teams scored, %
28.57
85.71
Over 2.5, %
42.86