Borussia Mönchengladbach win (2)
42%
3.75
OddScore Pick
42%
FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Prediction & Tips
Bundesliga
• Round 5
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sunday, 11 October 2026 — 13:30 UTC
RheinEnergieStadion
RheinEnergieStadion
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
49%
18 bookmakers
Model
42%
42%
Probability Distribution
Home (33%) / Draw (25%) / Away (42%)
FC Köln win (1)
33%
2.09
Draw (X)
25%
3.96
Probability Distribution
Yes — 59% | No — 41%
Both teams to score — Yes
59%
1.50
Both teams to score — No
41%
2.80
Probability Distribution
Over 2.5 — 57% | Under — 43%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.52
Under 2.5 goals
43%
2.63
Yes
Over
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The market's higher view of the home side fits the surface record in the data. Köln have one win and one draw from four matches and sit 13th, while Mönchengladbach have lost all four, conceded 16 goals and sit 18th. They also have more players unavailable, twelve against eight, including a suspended Tim Kleindienst. A price built on results, table position and absences would lean toward the hosts.
The model's more favourable view of the visitors could come from the underlying numbers. Their expected goals created per match is almost level with Köln's, and Köln's expected goals against is also high. Köln's recent results include heavy defeats at Stuttgart and Bayern, and Gladbach took the better of the last two meetings, a win and a draw. These samples are very small, and the data doesn't show how the model weighs any of this.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach in Round 5 of the Bundesliga, a meeting between two sides in the lower half of the table. Köln sit 13th after four matches, with one win, one draw and two defeats and a goal record of 6:9. Gladbach are 18th, having lost all four of their games with a record of 6:16. Even so, the model rates the visitors as slight favourites: 41.8% for an away win, 33.25% for a home win and 24.95% for a draw. The bookmaker prices of 2.1 for Köln, 4.15 for the draw and 3.5 for Gladbach point the other way and favour the hosts, so the model and the market disagree on who is ahead.
Goals look likely on both sides. Both teams have scored in every one of Köln's four matches, and all four of Gladbach's games have gone over 2.5 goals, compared with 75% of Köln's. The model puts the chance of both teams scoring at 58.61% and of over 2.5 goals at 56.65%. Over 1.5 goals comes in at 78.21%, and over 3.5 at 35.48%. The two most recent meetings produced a 3:3 draw in Köln in March 2026 and a 3:1 Gladbach win in November 2025, which fits that pattern.
Both squads are short of players. Köln are without the suspended Gil Neves and seven injured players: Luca Kilian, Luca Waldschmidt, Malek El Mala, Said El Mala, Sebastian Sebulonsen, Thijs Dallinga and Timo Hübers. Gladbach's list is longer. Tim Kleindienst is suspended, and eleven others are injured: Daiki Hashioka, Enzo Leopold, Fabio Chiarodia, Jens Castrop, Kevin Diks, Lukas Ullrich, Nicolas Kühn, Shio Fukuda, Yukhym Konoplya, Yvandro Borges Sanches and Zento Uno. With so many absences and little form to go on, the outcome is uncertain. These figures are probabilities and guarantee nothing.
FC Köln Form
Oct 24
Schalke 04
0 - 0
D
Oct 16
Eintracht Frankfurt
0 - 1
L
Oct 11
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2 - 1
W
Sep 19
Hamburger SV
1 - 2
L
Sep 12
Werder Bremen
1 - 1
D
Borussia Mönchengladbach Form
Oct 23
VfB Stuttgart
3 - 2
W
Oct 18
TSG Hoffenheim
1 - 2
L
Oct 11
FC Köln
1 - 2
L
Sep 19
FSV Mainz 05
3 - 4
L
Sep 12
SC Freiburg
0 - 5
L
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Mar 21, 2026
FC Köln
3 - 3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
RheinEnergieStadion
Nov 8, 2025
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3 - 1
FC Köln
Stadion im Borussia-Park
Key Stats & Team Metrics
FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.61
xG per match
1.68
1.66
xG against
2.59
16
Shots per match
15.3
50.3
Possession, %
45.7
8
Goals this season
11
71.43
Both teams scored, %
71.43
57.14
Over 2.5, %
100