Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Prediction & Tips

Champions League • Round 4
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
versus
Liverpool
Liverpool
Wednesday, 4 November 2026 — 17:45 UTC Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 59% 14 bookmakers Model 39%
Probability Distribution Home (39%) / Draw (23%) / Away (37%)
Fenerbahçe win (1) 39%
5.00 OddScore Pick
Liverpool win (2) 37%
1.69
Draw (X) 23%
4.51
Probability Distribution Yes — 58% | No — 42%
Both teams to score — Yes 58%
1.57
Both teams to score — No 42%
2.55
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 58% | Under — 42%
Over 2.5 goals 58%
1.50
Under 2.5 goals 42%
2.64
Both teams to score Yes — 58% vs No — 42% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 58% vs Under — 42% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 20% +100.1% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Fenerbahçe face Liverpool in the opening round of the Champions League, scheduled for 2026-09-08 at 19:00:00 UTC. The analytical model favors the home side, assigning Fenerbahçe a 56.08 percent probability of securing a victory. A draw is calculated at 22.04 percent, while an away win for Liverpool stands at a 21.88 percent probability. In terms of scoring likelihoods, both teams to score is assessed at 56.95 percent, with the chance of exceeding 2.5 total goals rated at 59.49 percent. Over 1.5 goals sits at an 80.1 percent probability.

Fenerbahçe enter the contest holding fourth place domestically this season, remaining unbeaten through six matches with four wins and two draws, scoring eight goals while conceding three. In their fixtures, both teams scored in 50 percent of the games, though over 2.5 goals occurred in only 16.67 percent. Liverpool, referencing their recorded three matches from last season, secured one win and two draws, scoring six and conceding four, with a 66.67 percent rate for both over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, placing seventh in their respective table.

Team selection will be heavily influenced by extensive player absences on both sides. Liverpool will be without the injured trio of Federico Chiesa, Hugo Ekitiké, and Joe Gomez. Fenerbahçe deal with a significantly depleted squad due to injuries to Çağlar Söyüncü, Diego Carlos, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Marco Asensio, Mert Günok, Mert Hakan Yandaş, and Milan Škriniar. Additionally, Fenerbahçe must navigate suspensions for Abdou Aziz Fall, Barış Sungur, Dominik Livakovic, Dorgeles Nene, Jayden Oosterwolde, Romelu Lukaku, Sofyan Amrabat, and Youssef En-Nesyri.

Fenerbahçe Form

Oct 20 Slavia Praha 2 - 2 D
Oct 14 Aston Villa 0 - 6 L
Sep 10 Roma 1 - 1 D
Aug 26 Olympique Lyonnais 2 - 1 W
Aug 18 Olympique Lyonnais 1 - 1 D

Liverpool Form

Oct 25 Brighton & Hove Albion 2 - 0 W
Oct 20 Villarreal 4 - 3 W
Oct 17 Brentford 2 - 1 W
Oct 14 LASK 6 - 3 W
Oct 11 Manchester City 0 - 3 L

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Fenerbahçe Liverpool
1.59
xG per match
2.24
1.61
xG against
1.14
13.3
Shots per match
20.7
48.2
Possession, %
54
11
Goals this season
12
55.56
Both teams scored, %
100
33.33
Over 2.5, %
100