Fenerbahçe vs Roma Prediction & Tips

Champions League
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
versus
Roma
Roma
Thursday, 10 September 2026 — 16:45 UTC Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 38% 12 bookmakers Model 58%
Probability Distribution Home (58%) / Draw (23%) / Away (19%)
Fenerbahçe win (1) 58%
2.54 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 23%
3.50
Roma win (2) 19%
2.90
Probability Distribution Yes — 52% | No — 48%
Both teams to score — Yes 52%
1.70
Both teams to score — No 48%
2.05
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%
Over 2.5 goals 54%
1.90
Under 2.5 goals 46%
1.90
Both teams to score Yes — 52% vs No — 48% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 58% | Market: 38% +52.1% Edge

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The difference between the two estimates likely stems from how each approach accounts for team form versus squad availability. The statistical model reflects a strong home advantage for Fenerbahçe, supported by their unbeaten season and positive expected goals metrics across six matches. However, the market estimate assigns a much closer probability to the visiting team, which aligns with Roma's perfect record, superior goal difference, and higher expected goals per match over their three fixtures.

Additionally, player availability presents a major contrast in the data. Fenerbahçe enters the fixture with an extensive list of fifteen unavailable players due to injuries and suspensions, including multiple key defenders and attackers. In comparison, Roma reports only three injured players. The bookmaker odds appear to give greater weight to these substantial squad absences and Roma's dominant early-season form, while the model leans more heavily on Fenerbahçe's sustained underlying match statistics and home venue.

Gap of 19.9 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Fenerbahçe host Roma in the Champions League on September 10, 2026, at 16:45 UTC. The analytical model assigns Fenerbahçe a 58.04 percent probability of securing a home victory, while a draw is rated at 22.55 percent and a Roma away win stands at 19.41 percent. In the betting markets, the home side is priced at 2.54, the draw is available at 3.5, and an away victory is listed at 2.9. Fenerbahçe enter the fixture sitting in fourth place domestically this season, remaining unbeaten through six matches with four wins and two draws, scoring eight goals and conceding three. Roma, based on their three-match record from last season, recorded three wins from three games, scoring ten goals and conceding one while holding first place.

Goal projections lean slightly toward a higher-scoring encounter, with the probability of over 2.5 goals calculated at 54.07 percent, matched by market odds of 1.9 for both over and under 2.5 goals. The likelihood of both teams finding the net is estimated at 51.52 percent. Fenerbahçe have seen over 2.5 goals in only 16.67 percent of their six games this season, while both teams scored in 50 percent of those fixtures.

Both squads face significant squad limitations. Fenerbahçe will be without injured players Çağlar Söyüncü, Diego Carlos, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Marco Asensio, Mert Günok, Mert Hakan Yandaş, and Milan Škriniar, while Abdou Aziz Fall, Barış Sungur, Dominik Livakovic, Dorgeles Nene, Jayden Oosterwolde, Romelu Lukaku, Sofyan Amrabat, and Youssef En-Nesyri are all suspended. Roma will be missing Devyne Rensch, Evan Ferguson, and Renato Marin due to injuries.

Fenerbahçe Form

Oct 20 Slavia Praha 2 - 2 D
Oct 14 Aston Villa 0 - 6 L
Sep 10 Roma 1 - 1 D
Aug 26 Olympique Lyonnais 2 - 1 W
Aug 18 Olympique Lyonnais 1 - 1 D

Roma Form

Oct 27 Cagliari 4 - 2 W
Oct 24 Napoli 3 - 3 D
Oct 20 Slovan Bratislava 4 - 0 W
Oct 17 Genoa 2 - 0 W
Oct 14 Real Madrid 3 - 4 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Sep 10, 2026 Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Roma Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Fenerbahçe Roma
1.59
xG per match
1.94
1.61
xG against
1.06
13.3
Shots per match
16
48.2
Possession, %
61.7
11
Goals this season
8
55.56
Both teams scored, %
66.67
33.33
Over 2.5, %
66.67