Fiorentina win (1)
38%
3.40
OddScore Pick
38%
Fiorentina vs Como Prediction & Tips
Serie A
• Round 7
Fiorentina
Como
Sunday, 18 October 2026 — 13:00 UTC
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Stadio Artemio Franchi
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
45%
18 bookmakers
Model
38%
38%
Probability Distribution
Home (38%) / Draw (26%) / Away (36%)
Como win (2)
36%
2.30
Draw (X)
26%
3.75
Probability Distribution
Yes — 54% | No — 46%
Both teams to score — Yes
54%
1.53
Both teams to score — No
46%
2.45
Probability Distribution
Over 2.5 — 52% | Under — 48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.70
Under 2.5 goals
48%
2.35
Yes
Over
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The market leans clearly towards Como, while the model sees the two sides as close to level, with a slight edge for Fiorentina. The most visible difference in the data is the league record. Fiorentina sit 19th with one win in six and a goal difference of 7-14, while Como are 7th with three wins and a 9-6 goal difference. Results like these may be weighted more heavily in the market's view than in the model's.
The underlying numbers are closer. Como's expected goals are slightly higher for and about level against (1.74 for, 1.39 against), while Fiorentina's are 1.57 for and 1.42 against. If the model leans more on chance quality than on results, that could account for part of the gap. Como's list of unavailable players is long, mostly suspensions, which could be treated differently by each side. The head-to-head record is split, with two wins each, so it doesn't clearly explain the difference. Line-ups aren't announced yet.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Fiorentina host Como in Round 7 of Serie A with the model leaning only slightly toward the home side. It gives Fiorentina a 38.06% chance of winning, Como 35.64% and a draw 26.33%. The bookmaker prices point the other way: Como are the shorter price at 2.12, against 3.54 for Fiorentina and 3.81 for the draw. The model is therefore less convinced of Como's edge than the market is.
The form tables help explain that tension. Fiorentina sit 18th after six matches, with one win, one draw and four defeats, and a goal record of 7 scored and 14 conceded. Como are 8th with three wins, two draws and one loss, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Both sides have seen both teams score in 66.67% of their games, but over 2.5 goals has landed in 83.33% of Fiorentina's matches and 50% of Como's. Como also come into the match with a long list of absentees, including seven players suspended and one injured, while Fiorentina are missing two injured players. That may be part of why the model rates the home side more favorably than its recent results would suggest.
The head-to-head record is balanced. Fiorentina won 2:0 at Como in November 2024 and 2:1 in February 2026, while Como won 2:0 in February 2025 and 2:1 at Fiorentina in September 2025. On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 54.01% and over 2.5 goals at 51.56%. Over 1.5 is 74.81% and under 3.5 is 70.45%. This points to a match with a reasonable chance of goals at both ends, though none of these figures guarantees an outcome.
Fiorentina Form
Oct 29
Atalanta
2 - 2
D
Oct 25
Inter
1 - 2
L
Oct 18
Como
1 - 3
L
Oct 10
Genoa
1 - 2
L
Sep 20
Napoli
1 - 1
D
Como Form
Oct 27
Torino
3 - 1
W
Oct 24
Sassuolo
2 - 0
W
Oct 21
Manchester United
4 - 1
W
Oct 18
Fiorentina
3 - 1
W
Oct 14
Feyenoord
2 - 3
L
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Feb 14, 2026
Como
1 - 2
Fiorentina
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Sep 21, 2025
Fiorentina
1 - 2
Como
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Feb 16, 2025
Fiorentina
0 - 2
Como
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Nov 24, 2024
Como
0 - 2
Fiorentina
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Fiorentina
Como
1.51
xG per match
1.88
1.66
xG against
1.4
16.6
Shots per match
20.3
46
Possession, %
61.7
11
Goals this season
17
77.78
Both teams scored, %
66.67
88.89
Over 2.5, %
55.56