FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 9

FSV Mainz 05

FC Bayern München

Saturday, 7 November 2026 — 14:30 UTC

Mewa Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 65% 11 bookmakers Model 65%

Probability Distribution Home (16%) / Draw (20%) / Away (65%)

FC Bayern München win (2) 65%

1.50 OddScore Pick

Draw (X) 20%

6.09

FSV Mainz 05 win (1) 16%

5.74

Probability Distribution Yes — 54% | No — 46%

Both teams to score — Yes 54%

1.33

Both teams to score — No 46%

3.25

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 61% | Under — 39%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

1.22

Under 2.5 goals 39%

4.33

Both teams to score Yes — 54% vs No — 46% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 61% vs Under — 39% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 65% | Market: 65% -0.9% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards an FC Bayern München win in this fixture, with a confidence of 65%. FSV Mainz 05 come into this one having taken 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 2.07 expected goals for and 1.61 against.

FC Bayern München arrive with 2-3-0 across their own last 5. The last 4 meetings between the two produced goals at both ends 3 times. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 61%. At the current price of 1.50 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

FSV Mainz 05 Form

Oct 30 Elversberg 1 - 4 L

Oct 24 Werder Bremen 2 - 3 L

Oct 17 Schalke 04 1 - 0 W

Oct 10 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 4 L

Sep 19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 3 W

FC Bayern München Form

Oct 25 SC Freiburg 3 - 1 W

Oct 21 Arsenal 2 - 2 D

Oct 17 RB Leipzig 6 - 1 W

Oct 13 Viking 3 - 3 D

Oct 10 FC Augsburg 2 - 2 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Apr 25, 2026 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 4 FC Bayern München Mewa Arena

Dec 14, 2025 FC Bayern München 2 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 Allianz Arena

Apr 26, 2025 FC Bayern München 3 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Allianz Arena

Dec 14, 2024 FSV Mainz 05 2 - 1 FC Bayern München Mewa Arena

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

FSV Mainz 05 FC Bayern München

2.07

xG per match

3.03

1.61

xG against

0.9

16.9

Shots per match

23.1

50.6

Possession, %

67.1

Goals this season

62.5

Both teams scored, %

71.43

Over 2.5, %

85.71