FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Tips

Bundesliga • Round 7

FSV Mainz 05

Werder Bremen

Saturday, 24 October 2026 — 13:30 UTC

Mewa Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 55% 17 bookmakers Model 49%

Probability Distribution Home (49%) / Draw (25%) / Away (26%)

FSV Mainz 05 win (1) 49%

1.80 OddScore Pick

Werder Bremen win (2) 26%

4.64

Draw (X) 25%

4.34

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.53

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.62

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 55% | Under — 45%

Over 2.5 goals 55%

1.57

Under 2.5 goals 45%

2.55

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 55% vs Under — 45% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 49% | Market: 55% -10.6% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a FSV Mainz 05 win in this fixture, with a confidence of 49%. FSV Mainz 05 come into this one having taken 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 2.07 expected goals for and 1.61 against.

Werder Bremen arrive with 2-3-0 across their own last 5. The last 4 meetings between the two produced goals at both ends 2 times. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%. At the current price of 1.80 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

FSV Mainz 05 Form

Oct 30 Elversberg 1 - 4 L

Oct 24 Werder Bremen 2 - 3 L

Oct 17 Schalke 04 1 - 0 W

Oct 10 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 - 4 L

Sep 19 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 3 W

Werder Bremen Form

Oct 24 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 2 W

Oct 17 Paderborn 2 - 2 D

Oct 9 Borussia Dortmund 2 - 2 D

Sep 19 FC Augsburg 3 - 2 W

Sep 12 FC Köln 1 - 1 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Mar 15, 2026 Werder Bremen 0 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 Wohninvest Weserstadion

Nov 1, 2025 FSV Mainz 05 1 - 1 Werder Bremen Mewa Arena

Jan 31, 2025 Werder Bremen 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05 Wohninvest Weserstadion

Sep 15, 2024 FSV Mainz 05 1 - 2 Werder Bremen Mewa Arena

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

FSV Mainz 05 Werder Bremen

2.07

xG per match

1.58

1.61

xG against

1.65

16.9

Shots per match

14.4

50.6

Possession, %

47.3

Goals this season

62.5

Both teams scored, %

100

Over 2.5, %

85.71