Genoa win (1)
41%
3.39
OddScore Pick
41%
Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction & Tips
Serie A
• Round 6
Genoa
Fiorentina
Saturday, 10 October 2026 — 13:00 UTC
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
AI Prediction Markets
Market average
42%
18 bookmakers
Model
41%
41%
Probability Distribution
Home (40%) / Draw (27%) / Away (32%)
Fiorentina win (2)
32%
2.37
Draw (X)
27%
3.35
Probability Distribution
Yes — 57% | No — 43%
Both teams to score — Yes
57%
1.85
Both teams to score — No
43%
2.05
Probability Distribution
Over 2.5 — 52% | Under — 48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
2.19
Under 2.5 goals
48%
1.78
Yes
Over
⇄ Why the estimates differ
The two estimates differ in which side they lean toward. The model sees the home side as more likely to win, while the market leans toward the away side. The data contains a few features that could pull in these directions. Fiorentina's underlying chance creation is clearly stronger than Genoa's, at 1.64 expected goals per match against 0.9. Their results have been uneven, but they have scored more and sit two places higher in the table. A market that weights this attacking output, or the two sides' recent form, would lean toward the visitors. Genoa have lost four of five, conceded heavily to Como, and three players are unavailable, two of them through suspension. A model that places more weight on home advantage, or less on this short run of results, could produce the opposite lean. Fiorentina's own record also includes heavy defeats, and two players are injured. The data does not show how either side weights these inputs, so this remains a description of differences, not a settled cause.
✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown
Genoa host Fiorentina in round 6 of Serie A on 10 October at 13:00 UTC. Both clubs are in the lower part of the table. Genoa are 19th after five matches, with no wins, one draw and four defeats, and a goal record of 3 scored and 10 conceded. Fiorentina are 17th with one win, one draw and three defeats, and have scored 6 and conceded 12. Both teams have scored in 60% of each side's matches this season. Fiorentina's games have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, against 40% for Genoa.
The model gives Genoa a 40.46% chance of winning, with 27.13% for a draw and 32.44% for a Fiorentina win. The bookmaker prices point the other way. Odds of 2.39 on Fiorentina and 3.34 on Genoa imply the market rates the visitors higher than the model does. On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 57.01% and over 2.5 goals at 52.45%. It also gives 75.99% for over 1.5 and 70.27% for under 3.5, so a moderately open game is more likely than a high-scoring one.
Fiorentina have the better recent record in this fixture. They won 1:0 at Genoa in October 2024 and 2:1 at home in February 2025, and the last two meetings were a 2:2 in November 2025 and a 0:0 in May 2026. Genoa will be without Hamed Traoré (injured) and the suspended Johan Vásquez and M. Badelj. Fiorentina are missing Christ Inao Oulaï and Fabiano Parisi, both injured. These are probabilities, not certainties, and a match between two sides in poor form leaves plenty of room for variance.
Genoa Form
Oct 28
Juventus
2 - 0
W
Oct 25
Venezia
1 - 0
W
Oct 17
Roma
0 - 2
L
Oct 10
Fiorentina
2 - 1
W
Sep 20
Parma
1 - 2
L
Fiorentina Form
Oct 29
Atalanta
2 - 2
D
Oct 25
Inter
1 - 2
L
Oct 18
Como
1 - 3
L
Oct 10
Genoa
1 - 2
L
Sep 20
Napoli
1 - 1
D
Head to Head History
DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
May 10, 2026
Fiorentina
0 - 0
Genoa
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Nov 9, 2025
Genoa
2 - 2
Fiorentina
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Feb 2, 2025
Fiorentina
2 - 1
Genoa
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Oct 31, 2024
Genoa
0 - 1
Fiorentina
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Key Stats & Team Metrics
Genoa
Fiorentina
0.86
xG per match
1.51
1.38
xG against
1.66
11
Shots per match
16.6
43.7
Possession, %
46
8
Goals this season
11
44.44
Both teams scored, %
77.78
33.33
Over 2.5, %
88.89