Hearts vs Nordsjælland Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 1

Hearts

Nordsjælland

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Tynecastle Park

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 43% 19 bookmakers Model 49%

Probability Distribution Home (49%) / Draw (24%) / Away (28%)

Hearts win (1) 49%

3.02 OddScore Pick

Nordsjælland win (2) 28%

2.45

Draw (X) 24%

3.95

Probability Distribution Yes — 55% | No — 45%

Both teams to score — Yes 55%

1.44

Both teams to score — No 45%

2.75

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 58% | Under — 42%

Over 2.5 goals 58%

1.51

Under 2.5 goals 42%

2.60

Both teams to score Yes — 55% vs No — 45% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 58% vs Under — 42% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 49% | Market: 32% +51.5% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The clearest contrast in the data is between recent results and underlying chances. Nordsjælland have won each of their last five matches and sit second in their table, with many goals scored and few conceded. Hearts have lost three of their last five, including two heavy defeats away from home. A view weighted toward recent results would lean toward the visitors.

Nordsjælland's expected goals against per match is high, well above what they have actually conceded, and Hearts' expected goals figures are close to level. A view weighted toward chance quality, plus home advantage, would sit closer to Hearts. Nordsjælland also have four players unavailable, one through suspension, against one for Hearts, which could pull either way depending on how each side weighs squad depth. Line-ups are not yet announced, and Hearts' season sample is a single match.

Gap of 16.6 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Hearts host Nordsjælland in round 1 of the Europa Conference League, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC on 15 October 2026. The model gives Hearts a 48.82% chance of winning, the draw 23.53% and Nordsjælland 27.65%. The market sees it differently. The best available prices of 3.2 for a home win and 2.45 for an away win imply roughly 31% and 41%, so the bookmakers favour the visitors where the model leans toward the home side. That gap is worth noting, but neither view is certain.

The form data gives some context. Hearts have played once this season, a 2-2 draw in which both sides scored and the game went over 2.5 goals. That is a very small sample. Nordsjælland have won five of six, with a 17:3 goal record, and sit second in their league. Only 16.67% of their matches have seen both teams score, and half have gone over 2.5 goals. This suggests they tend to win cleanly rather than in open exchanges.

On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 55.14% and over 2.5 goals at 57.94%. Over 3.5 goals is at 35.49%, and over 1.5 is at 79.68%. Both sides have absentees. Hearts are without the injured Craig Halkett. Nordsjælland are missing Jakob Busk, Ola Solbakken and Souleymane Alio through injury, and Villads Rutkjær through suspension. These figures are probabilities, not guarantees, and a single match can easily depart from them.

Hearts Form

Oct 22 Trabzonspor 0 - 2 L

Oct 15 Nordsjælland 1 - 1 D

Aug 20 SK Rapid 2 - 2 D

Aug 13 Benfica 1 - 1 D

Aug 6 Benfica 1 - 6 L

Nordsjælland Form

Oct 22 CSKA Sofia 2 - 2 D

Oct 15 Hearts 1 - 1 D

Aug 27 St. Gallen 3 - 2 W

Aug 20 St. Gallen 1 - 0 W

Aug 13 Valur 5 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Hearts Nordsjælland

1.15

xG per match

1.44

1.32

xG against

2.22

15.7

Shots per match

17.2

40.7

Possession, %

57.4

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

37.5

33.33

Over 2.5, %