Ipswich Town vs Fulham Prediction & Tips

Premier League • Round 6
Ipswich Town
Ipswich Town
versus
Fulham
Fulham
Saturday, 10 October 2026 — 14:00 UTC Portman Road Stadium

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 40% 19 bookmakers Model 41%
Probability Distribution Home (41%) / Draw (26%) / Away (33%)
Ipswich Town win (1) 41%
3.16 OddScore Pick
Fulham win (2) 33%
2.53
Draw (X) 26%
3.60
Probability Distribution Yes — 53% | No — 47%
Both teams to score — Yes 53%
1.65
Both teams to score — No 47%
2.30
Probability Distribution Under — 51% | Over 2.5 — 49%
Under 2.5 goals 51%
2.19
Over 2.5 goals 49%
1.86
Both teams to score Yes — 53% vs No — 47% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 49% vs Under — 51% Under
Neural edge detected Model: 41% | Market: 32% +26.0% Edge

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The two estimates favour different winners, and the supplied data points in both directions. On results, Ipswich look better placed. They sit eleventh with two wins, while Fulham are nineteenth and winless in five matches. An approach that leans on league position, results and home advantage would tilt toward Ipswich.

The underlying numbers point the other way. Fulham's expected goals per match are higher than Ipswich's. Ipswich concede more in expected terms than they create, while Fulham's balance is slightly positive. Ipswich also list seven injured players against one for Fulham, and line-ups are not yet announced, so how much those absences matter is unclear. The two estimates for a draw are close, and both recent meetings between these sides ended level. The data doesn't show how much weight either side gives to each of these factors.

Gap of 8.4 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Ipswich Town host Fulham in round 6 of the Premier League on 10 October at 14:00 UTC. The model leans slightly toward the home side, giving Ipswich a 40.79% chance of a win, Fulham 33.39% and a draw 25.85%. The bookmaker prices are close to this view. The best available odds are 2.90 for Ipswich, 3.64 for the draw and 2.53 for Fulham. Those odds make Fulham the market's marginal favourite, so the model and the market disagree about which side is ahead.

Current form gives little separation. Ipswich sit 11th after five games with two wins and three defeats, and a goal record of 7 scored and 11 conceded. Fulham are 19th with no wins, two draws and three defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Both teams have seen both sides score in 60% of their matches. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ipswich games and 40% of Fulham games. Ipswich have a long injury list, with Ashley Young, Azor Matusiwa, Florentino, Jack Taylor, Jaden Philogene, Kasey McAteer and Sammie Szmodics all unavailable. Fulham are only without Tom Cairney. The model does not tell us how much these absences affect its estimate.

On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 53.09% against 46.91% for no. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 73.77%, over 2.5 at 48.77% and over 3.5 at 27.18%. Under 2.5 is slightly ahead at 51.19%, so the total is close to a coin flip around that line. The two most recent meetings were draws, 1:1 in August 2024 and 2:2 in January 2025. That adds some weight to a tight contest, though it is a small sample. These figures are probabilities and do not guarantee any result.

Ipswich Town Form

Oct 23 Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 D
Oct 17 Manchester City 2 - 3 L
Oct 10 Fulham 2 - 1 W
Sep 19 Everton 0 - 1 L
Sep 12 Crystal Palace 3 - 2 W

Fulham Form

Oct 24 Coventry City 1 - 0 W
Oct 17 Hull City 1 - 0 W
Oct 10 Ipswich Town 1 - 2 L
Sep 20 Manchester United 1 - 1 D
Sep 12 Liverpool 0 - 0 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Jan 5, 2025 Fulham 2 - 2 Ipswich Town Craven Cottage
Aug 31, 2024 Ipswich Town 1 - 1 Fulham Portman Road Stadium

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Ipswich Town Fulham
1.21
xG per match
1.53
1.94
xG against
1.19
10.5
Shots per match
14.4
43.9
Possession, %
58
12
Goals this season
8
75
Both teams scored, %
50
62.5
Over 2.5, %
37.5