Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction & Tips

⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources see Brighton as the likelier winner, but the model leaves Jablonec a much larger share of the outcome, and the draw is also rated higher by the model. Several details in the data could account for that. Jablonec's expected goals per match show a clear imbalance, with little created and a lot conceded, which fits a heavy lean towards the visitors. The model's softer position may reflect Jablonec's actual results, though: three wins from six, ten goals scored against eight conceded, and a 2-0 and 2-1 pair of wins in the most recent home and away fixtures against Rīgas FS. Brighton's recent scorelines are very lopsided, with several clean sheets, yet their season xG figures are more moderate, and the current sample is only three matches. A market weighing the recent scorelines more heavily would sit further towards Brighton. Squad availability is another difference: Jablonec have four suspensions and one injury, while Brighton have eight injuries and one suspension. Line-ups are not yet announced, so the effect of these absences is unclear.

Gap of 34.7 percentage points.