Jagiellonia Białystok vs Anderlecht Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 3

Jagiellonia Białystok

Anderlecht

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Stadion Miejski

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 42% 18 bookmakers Model 41%

Probability Distribution Home (41%) / Draw (23%) / Away (36%)

Jagiellonia Białystok win (1) 41%

3.48 OddScore Pick

Anderlecht win (2) 36%

2.26

Draw (X) 23%

3.62

Probability Distribution Yes — 61% | No — 39%

Both teams to score — Yes 61%

1.70

Both teams to score — No 39%

2.30

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 60% | Under — 40%

Over 2.5 goals 60%

1.86

Under 2.5 goals 40%

2.11

Both teams to score Yes — 61% vs No — 39% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 60% vs Under — 40% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 41% | Market: 31% +32.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The model leans toward the home side, while the market leans toward the visitors, so the disagreement is about which team is ahead. The data points in both directions, which may explain part of it.

Several things fit a home-leaning view. Jagiellonia have won four of six this season, with a goal tally of 13 to 6, and they won both of their last two home matches by wide margins. Anderlecht have lost two of their last five, including a 1-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb.

Other things fit the market's tilt. Jagiellonia's underlying chance numbers are weaker than their results: they create about 1.12 expected goals per match and concede about 2.05, whereas Anderlecht sit at 1.67 for and 1.47 against. A view that weights those figures more heavily would rank the visitors higher. Anderlecht also have many absentees, but the data doesn't show how much that affects the gap. Line-ups are not yet announced.

Gap of 10.1 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Jagiellonia Białystok host Anderlecht in round 3 of the Europa League, and the model leans slightly toward the home side. It gives Jagiellonia a 41.05% chance of winning, Anderlecht 35.98% and a draw 22.97%. The bookmaker prices are 3.12 for the hosts, 3.67 for the draw and 2.30 for the visitors. The market therefore rates Anderlecht as the more likely winner, while the model sees the two sides as closer, with a small edge to the home team.

Both teams arrive in good form. Jagiellonia have played six matches this season, with four wins, one draw and one defeat, and a goal record of 13 scored and 6 conceded. They sit fifth in the league. Anderlecht have played eight, winning five, drawing one and losing two, with 15 goals for and 7 against, and they are fourth. The difference in profile is clear. Both teams have scored in 83.33% of Jagiellonia's matches and over 2.5 goals have been seen in the same share. For Anderlecht, both teams have scored in 50% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 62.5%.

The model expects goals. It gives 61.08% for both teams scoring and 60.08% for over 2.5 goals, with over 1.5 at 81.54% and over 3.5 at 37.57%. Anderlecht's squad is heavily depleted. Ali Maamar, Amadou Diawara and Ilias Koutsoupias are suspended. Andrew Omobamidele, Cedric Hatenboer, Giulian Biancone, Ilay Camara, Killian Sardella, Lucas Hey, Lukas Ambros and Moussa Ndiaye are injured. Jagiellonia are without Dusan Stojinovic and Kamil Jóźwiak, both injured. These are probabilities rather than certainties, and the outcome remains open.

Jagiellonia Białystok Form

Oct 22 Anderlecht 0 - 3 L

Oct 15 Ararat-Armenia 3 - 1 W

Sep 16 Olympiacos F.C. 1 - 2 L

Aug 27 FC Iberia 1999 2 - 1 W

Aug 20 FC Iberia 1999 4 - 0 W

Anderlecht Form

Oct 22 Jagiellonia Białystok 3 - 0 W

Oct 15 Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 1 L

Sep 16 Olympique Lyonnais 1 - 2 L

Aug 27 Kairat 3 - 0 W

Aug 20 Kairat 3 - 0 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Jagiellonia Białystok Anderlecht

0.92

xG per match

1.51

1.8

xG against

1.18

10.2

Shots per match

12.5

43.5

Possession, %

57.2

Goals this season

71.43

Both teams scored, %

44.44

85.71

Over 2.5, %

66.67