Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Prediction & Tips

Europa Conference League • Round 2

Kauno Žalgiris

Brann

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 54% 18 bookmakers Model 45%

Probability Distribution Home (30%) / Draw (25%) / Away (45%)

Brann win (2) 45%

1.79 OddScore Pick

Kauno Žalgiris win (1) 30%

5.00

Draw (X) 25%

4.25

Probability Distribution Yes — 55% | No — 45%

Both teams to score — Yes 55%

1.85

Both teams to score — No 45%

1.91

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 53% | Under — 47%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

2.02

Under 2.5 goals 47%

2.19

Both teams to score Yes — 55% vs No — 45% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 53% vs Under — 47% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 45% | Market: 54% -16.8% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both sources see Brann as the favourite, but the market leaves Kauno Žalgiris a noticeably smaller chance of winning than the model does. The draw is valued almost the same on both sides, so the difference is mostly a transfer between a home win and an away win.

The data offers a few things that could account for this. Kauno Žalgiris have a very thin sample this season, with one match played, and their recent results include several heavy defeats. Their expected goals figures are also lopsided: 0.28 for and 2.07 against per match. A market that weights those results and that xG profile heavily would give the home side less. A model that is more cautious about such a small sample might not.

On the other side, Brann have six players unavailable, five injured and one suspended. Kauno Žalgiris are missing one suspended player. A model that accounts for those absences more fully than the bookmakers do could narrow the gap. The data doesn't show how either source treats absences, so this is only a possibility. Line-ups haven't been announced.

Gap of 9.8 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards an Brann win in this fixture, with a confidence of 45%. Kauno Žalgiris come into this one having taken 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 1.02 expected goals for and 2.97 against.

Brann arrive with 4-1-0 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. At the current price of 1.79 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Kauno Žalgiris Form

Oct 22 Brann 1 - 4 L

Oct 15 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 - 4 L

Aug 27 Beşiktaş 1 - 0 W

Aug 20 Beşiktaş 0 - 3 L

Aug 11 Dinamo Zagreb 1 - 2 L

Brann Form

Oct 22 Kauno Žalgiris 4 - 1 W

Oct 15 Lincoln Red Imps 2 - 1 W

Aug 27 PAOK 3 - 2 W

Aug 20 PAOK 1 - 1 D

Aug 11 Apollon 4 - 2 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Kauno Žalgiris Brann

1.02

xG per match

2.35

2.97

xG against

1.6

Shots per match

15.3

27.5

Possession, %

62.4

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

87.5

100

Over 2.5, %