LASK vs Liverpool Prediction & Tips

Champions League • Round 2

LASK

Liverpool

Wednesday, 14 October 2026 — 16:45 UTC

Raiffeisen Arena

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 67% 20 bookmakers Model 44%

Probability Distribution Home (34%) / Draw (22%) / Away (44%)

Liverpool win (2) 44%

1.47 OddScore Pick

LASK win (1) 34%

9.00

Draw (X) 22%

6.50

Probability Distribution Yes — 59% | No — 41%

Both teams to score — Yes 59%

1.80

Both teams to score — No 41%

2.05

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 61% | Under — 39%

Over 2.5 goals 61%

1.64

Under 2.5 goals 39%

2.50

Both teams to score Yes — 59% vs No — 41% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 61% vs Under — 39% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 44% | Market: 67% -35.0% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates lean towards Liverpool, but the model leaves LASK a much larger share of the outcome. The clearest candidate in the data is LASK's expected-goals profile. They create well over two expected goals per match and concede about one and a quarter, which compares favourably with Liverpool's figures. That profile rests on only three matches, though, and Liverpool's on a single season match, so a model weighting these numbers could read them differently from a market that may weigh other things.

Both sides also have six players unavailable, including several Liverpool forwards, but the data doesn't show how either estimate treats that. Nothing else supplied, including the close league positions, clearly explains a gap this wide, so part of it may lie in information outside the data.

Gap of 23.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

LASK host Liverpool in Round 1 of the Champions League on September 8, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00:00 UTC. LASK enter the fixture positioned 28th in their league this season, having recorded one win and one loss from two matches, scoring five goals and conceding four, with both teams scoring in 50% of those fixtures and over 2.5 goals occurring in 100% of them. Liverpool, based on their form from last season where they finished 7th in the league, went unbeaten across three matches with one win and two draws, scoring six goals and conceding four, while seeing both teams score and over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of those games. Both sides face roster constraints: LASK are missing the injured Jérôme Boateng and Ramiz Harakaté, as well as the suspended Robert Ljubicic, while Liverpool will be without the injured trio of Federico Chiesa, Hugo Ekitiké, and Joe Gomez.

From a probabilistic perspective, the model gives LASK a 42.64% chance of winning at home, while an away victory for Liverpool is rated at 33.73%, and the draw stands at 23.63%. The data suggests a reasonable expectation of goals, with both teams scoring assigned a 65.47% probability versus 34.53% for no. In the goal total markets, the probability of over 1.5 goals is 85.39%, over 2.5 goals is evaluated at 66.62%, over 3.5 goals sits at 44.14%, and over 4.5 goals is estimated at 28.57%.

LASK Form

Oct 21 Sporting CP 3 - 2 W

Oct 14 Liverpool 3 - 6 L

Sep 8 AEK Athens 0 - 1 L

Aug 25 Celtic 5 - 1 W

Aug 19 Celtic 0 - 3 L

Liverpool Form

Oct 25 Brighton & Hove Albion 2 - 0 W

Oct 20 Villarreal 4 - 3 W

Oct 17 Brentford 2 - 1 W

Oct 14 LASK 6 - 3 W

Oct 11 Manchester City 0 - 3 L

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

LASK Liverpool

2.01

xG per match

2.24

2.15

xG against

1.14

18.8

Shots per match

20.7

41.8

Possession, %

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

100

Over 2.5, %

100