Lazio vs Monza Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 6

Lazio

Monza

Sunday, 11 October 2026 — 13:00 UTC

Stadio Olimpico

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 55% 18 bookmakers Model 42%

Probability Distribution Home (42%) / Draw (26%) / Away (32%)

Lazio win (1) 42%

1.74 OddScore Pick

Monza win (2) 32%

5.60

Draw (X) 26%

4.00

Probability Distribution Yes — 57% | No — 43%

Both teams to score — Yes 57%

1.78

Both teams to score — No 43%

2.10

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 53% | Under — 47%

Over 2.5 goals 53%

1.86

Under 2.5 goals 47%

2.12

Both teams to score Yes — 57% vs No — 43% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 53% vs Under — 47% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 42% | Market: 55% -23.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates make Lazio the favourite, but the market gives them a much clearer edge, and the model leaves noticeably more room for a draw and an away win. The data points to a few things that could push the two apart. Lazio's results are strong: four wins and a draw from five, third in the table, with both recent head-to-head meetings won. Monza have won once, sit sixteenth and have conceded twelve goals. A market that leans heavily on results and standings would read this as a wide gap in form.

The underlying chances are closer. Lazio's expected goals for and against are almost level, while Monza's expected goals for are higher than Lazio's and their expected goals against are lower. A model weighting these figures would see a narrower difference between the sides. Both squads also have long injury lists, and line-ups are not yet announced, so how much weight each estimate gives to absences is unclear from this data.

Gap of 13 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Lazio host Monza in Round 6 of Serie A, and the model gives the home side the edge without making them clear favourites. Lazio are rated at 42.06% to win, with the draw at 26.29% and a Monza victory at 31.69%. Lazio come in third in the table after five matches, with four wins and a draw, eight goals scored and three conceded. Monza are 16th with one win, one draw and three defeats, and a goal difference of 8 scored to 12 conceded.

The goal markets point to a moderately open game. The model puts both teams scoring at 56.78%, against 43.22% for a clean sheet by at least one side. Over 2.5 goals is at 52.76% and under 2.5 at 47.24%, so the line is close to an even split. Over 1.5 goals is at 75.85%, over 3.5 at 30.85% and over 4.5 at 17.21%. The recent form of the two sides differs here. Both teams have scored in all of Monza's five matches and over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of them. For Lazio the figures are 40% for both teams scoring and 40% for over 2.5 goals. Lazio's two most recent meetings with Monza both went their way: a 1:0 away win in November 2024 and a 5:1 home win in February 2025.

Squad availability may matter. Monza list eleven players as injured and one, Pedro Obiang, as suspended. Lazio have fourteen players injured, among them Mattia Zaccagni, Nicolò Rovella and Alessio Romagnoli. Both squads are therefore stretched, and the lineups could change the picture. The probabilities above describe likelihoods only, and any of the three results remains realistic.

Lazio Form

Oct 27 Sassuolo 6 - 2 W

Oct 24 Parma 2 - 1 W

Oct 18 Juventus 3 - 0 W

Oct 11 Monza 3 - 1 W

Sep 19 Venezia 2 - 0 W

Monza Form

Oct 28 Napoli 1 - 4 L

Oct 23 Torino 2 - 3 L

Oct 19 Cagliari 4 - 0 W

Oct 11 Lazio 1 - 3 L

Sep 18 Sassuolo 2 - 1 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Feb 9, 2025 Lazio 5 - 1 Monza Stadio Olimpico

Nov 10, 2024 Monza 0 - 1 Lazio U-Power Stadium

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Lazio Monza

1.64

xG per match

1.4

1.24

xG against

1.48

14.1

Shots per match

13.2

51.8

Possession, %

43.7

Goals this season

55.56

Both teams scored, %

88.89

66.67

Over 2.5, %

88.89