Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction & Tips

Ligue 1 • Round 7
Le Havre
Le Havre
versus
Auxerre
Auxerre
Sunday, 18 October 2026 — 15:15 UTC Stade Océane

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 42% 18 bookmakers Model 50%
Probability Distribution Home (50%) / Draw (26%) / Away (24%)
Le Havre win (1) 50%
2.36 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 26%
3.60
Auxerre win (2) 24%
3.25
Probability Distribution Yes — 52% | No — 48%
Both teams to score — Yes 52%
1.67
Both teams to score — No 48%
2.30
Probability Distribution Under — 51% | Over 2.5 — 49%
Under 2.5 goals 51%
2.18
Over 2.5 goals 49%
1.91
Both teams to score Yes — 52% vs No — 48% Yes
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 49% vs Under — 51% Under
Neural edge detected Model: 50% | Market: 42% +17.5% Edge

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Le Havre host Auxerre in round 7 of Ligue 1, and the model gives the home side the edge. Le Havre are rated at 49.44% to win, with the draw at 26.53% and an Auxerre win at 23.99%. That edge comes despite a difficult start for Le Havre. They sit 18th after six matches with no wins, two draws and four defeats, and a goal record of 4 scored and 8 conceded. Auxerre are 16th, with two wins and four defeats from six. They have scored 8 and conceded 16.

The two sides' profiles differ in the goals markets. Auxerre's matches have been open: both teams scored in 83.33% of them, and the same share went over 2.5 goals. Le Havre's games have been tighter, with both teams scoring in 50% and over 2.5 goals in 33.33%. The model lands between the two. It puts both teams scoring at 51.14% and over 2.5 goals at 48.08%, with under 2.5 slightly ahead at 51.92%. Over 1.5 goals is rated at 72.25%, while over 3.5 stands at 27% and over 4.5 at 15.54%.

Recent head-to-head history also favours the hosts. Le Havre won three of the last four meetings, including 2:1 away and 1:0 at Auxerre, and the most recent one, in April 2026, finished 1:1. Team news is a factor for both. Le Havre are without six injured players: Étienne Youté Kinkoué, Felix Mambimbi, Fodé Ballo-Touré, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, Samuel Grandsir and Stephan Zagadou. Auxerre have a longer list. Ado Onaiwu, Christ Makosso and Gabriel Osho are suspended, and Assane Dioussé, Bryan Okoh, Clément Akpa, Marvin Senaya, Sékou Fofana and T. Siwe are injured. These probabilities describe likelihoods, not certainties, and either side can still change the picture on the day.

Le Havre Form

Oct 30 Paris Saint Germain 1 - 5 L
Oct 25 Olympique Marseille 3 - 4 L
Oct 18 Auxerre 1 - 3 L
Oct 10 LOSC Lille 0 - 1 L
Sep 19 Toulouse 2 - 3 L

Auxerre Form

Oct 25 Le Mans 1 - 1 D
Oct 18 Le Havre 3 - 1 W
Oct 11 Rennes 1 - 4 L
Sep 20 Brest 2 - 1 W
Sep 12 Nice 1 - 0 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Apr 5, 2026 Le Havre 1 - 1 Auxerre Stade Océane
Oct 26, 2025 Auxerre 0 - 1 Le Havre Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
May 4, 2025 Auxerre 1 - 2 Le Havre Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Sep 1, 2024 Le Havre 3 - 1 Auxerre Stade Océane

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Le Havre Auxerre
1.75
xG per match
1.19
1.6
xG against
1.86
16.1
Shots per match
12.3
47
Possession, %
47.9
9
Goals this season
12
66.67
Both teams scored, %
87.5
55.56
Over 2.5, %
75