Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction & Tips

Ligue 1 • Round 9
Le Havre
Le Havre
versus
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain
Friday, 30 October 2026 — 18:00 UTC Stade Océane

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 73% 17 bookmakers Model 66%
Probability Distribution Home (14%) / Draw (20%) / Away (66%)
Paris Saint Germain win (2) 66%
1.36 OddScore Pick
Draw (X) 20%
6.20
Le Havre win (1) 14%
10.00
Probability Distribution No — 52% | Yes — 48%
Both teams to score — No 52%
2.15
Both teams to score — Yes 48%
1.73
Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 54% | Under — 46%
Over 2.5 goals 54%
1.42
Under 2.5 goals 46%
3.03
Both teams to score Yes — 48% vs No — 52% No
Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 54% vs Under — 46% Over
Neural edge detected Model: 66% | Market: 73% -9.0% Edge

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The model’s estimate leaves more room for a Le Havre result and for a draw, which could be connected to home advantage and Le Havre’s xG figures: despite their poor record, they average 1.79 expected goals for and 1.53 against. The model may therefore see attacking potential that is not reflected in their results, while the absence of announced line-ups leaves the effect of unavailable players uncertain.

The bookmaker median places more weight on the overall competitive record and recent outcomes visible in the data: Le Havre have no wins in eight league matches, sit last, and have lost their last four, while Paris Saint Germain sit first and have won their last five listed matches. Paris also have the stronger season goal record, higher attacking xG, and have won all four listed head-to-head meetings. Their seven unavailable players, including several prominent names, could help account for the difference between the estimates, while Le Havre have nine unavailable players of their own.

Gap of 6.5 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Le Havre host Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1’s ninth round on 30 October 2026. The teams enter the match at opposite ends of the table: Le Havre are 18th after eight matches, with no wins, two draws and six defeats, while Paris Saint Germain are first with five wins, two draws and one defeat. Le Havre have scored eight goals and conceded 15. Paris Saint Germain have scored 16 and conceded nine. Both teams have scored in 62.5% of Le Havre’s matches and 75% of Paris Saint Germain’s, while over 2.5 goals has occurred in 50% and 75% respectively.

The model assigns Paris Saint Germain a 66.11% probability of winning, compared with 13.89% for a Le Havre victory and 19.99% for a draw. It gives a 54.26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47.52% for both teams to score. Recent meetings also favor Paris Saint Germain, who won the last four listed encounters, including a 1-0 victory at Le Havre on 28 February 2026. Le Havre will be without Ayumu Seko, Elias Jelert, Étienne Youté Kinkoué, Felix Mambimbi, Fodé Ballo-Touré, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, Samuel Grandsir, Stephan Zagadou and Timothée Pembélé. Paris Saint Germain are missing Achraf Hakimi, Alessandro Longoni, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Ousmane Dembélé and Senny Nsona Mayulu.

Le Havre Form

Oct 30 Paris Saint Germain 1 - 5 L
Oct 25 Olympique Marseille 3 - 4 L
Oct 18 Auxerre 1 - 3 L
Oct 10 LOSC Lille 0 - 1 L
Sep 19 Toulouse 2 - 3 L

Paris Saint Germain Form

Oct 30 Le Havre 5 - 1 W
Oct 26 Olympique Lyonnais 2 - 0 W
Oct 20 FC Barcelona 4 - 2 W
Oct 17 Strasbourg 3 - 1 W
Oct 14 Manchester City 4 - 2 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue
Feb 28, 2026 Le Havre 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain Stade Océane
Nov 22, 2025 Paris Saint Germain 3 - 0 Le Havre Parc des Princes
Apr 19, 2025 Paris Saint Germain 2 - 1 Le Havre Parc des Princes
Aug 16, 2024 Le Havre 1 - 4 Paris Saint Germain Stade Océane

Key Stats & Team Metrics

Le Havre Paris Saint Germain
1.75
xG per match
2.25
1.6
xG against
1.12
16.1
Shots per match
19.8
47
Possession, %
68.3
9
Goals this season
21
66.67
Both teams scored, %
77.78
55.56
Over 2.5, %
77.78