Lecce vs Bologna Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 6

Lecce

Bologna

Sunday, 11 October 2026 — 13:00 UTC

Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 46% 18 bookmakers Model 39%

Probability Distribution Home (32%) / Draw (29%) / Away (39%)

Bologna win (2) 39%

2.13 OddScore Pick

Lecce win (1) 32%

4.20

Draw (X) 29%

3.35

Probability Distribution No — 51% | Yes — 49%

Both teams to score — No 51%

1.95

Both teams to score — Yes 49%

1.95

Probability Distribution Under — 56% | Over 2.5 — 44%

Under 2.5 goals 56%

1.71

Over 2.5 goals 44%

2.29

Both teams to score Yes — 49% vs No — 51% No

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 44% vs Under — 56% Under

Neural edge detected Model: 39% | Market: 46% -16.3% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The market sees Bologna as a clearer favourite than the model does, and the supplied data points in a few directions. Bologna's underlying numbers are stronger than their results. They create more chances than they concede, yet they have no wins and sit 18th. Lecce's expected goals show the opposite pattern: they concede about twice what they create, and their recent results include heavy defeats at home to Roma and away at Milan. A market that leans on those outcomes and on the head-to-head record, where Bologna won the two most recent games Lecce didn't draw, would lean further towards the visitors. A model that weighs expected goals more heavily would see a closer match.

Injuries are listed for both squads, four for Lecce and three for Bologna, but nothing in the data shows how much either absence matters. Line-ups are not yet announced, so any difference there cannot be assessed.

Gap of 8.6 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Lecce host Bologna in Round 6 of Serie A, with kick-off at 13:00 UTC on 11 October 2026. The model gives Bologna the slightly higher chance of winning at 38.85%, against 32.49% for Lecce and 28.66% for a draw. The bookmaker prices are more strongly in Bologna's favour. The best available odds are 1.98 for an away win and 4.68 for a home win, so the market sees a wider gap between the sides than the model does. All three outcomes remain well within range.

The form tables show two struggling sides. Lecce are 12th after five games, with two wins and three defeats and a goal record of 5 scored and 10 conceded. Bologna are 18th with no wins, two draws and three defeats, and have scored 3 and conceded 6. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lecce's games, but in only 20% of Bologna's. Both teams have scored in 20% of Lecce's matches and 40% of Bologna's. Lecce are without Jeppe Corfitzen, Medon Berisha, Omri Gandelman and Willem Geubbels through injury, while Bologna miss Oussama El Azzouzi, Riccardo Orsolini and Ukko Happonen.

Recent meetings have been tight and low-scoring. Bologna won 2:0 in April 2026 and 1:0 in November 2024, with a 2:2 draw and a 0:0 draw in between. Lecce have scored twice in those four games. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 56.21% and over 2.5 at 43.79%. It sees both teams scoring at 49.23% and not scoring at 50.77%, which is close to even. These are probabilities, not certainties.

Lecce Form

Oct 29 Frosinone 1 - 5 L

Oct 25 Juventus 0 - 2 L

Oct 18 Udinese 3 - 0 W

Oct 11 Bologna 1 - 2 L

Sep 20 AC Milan 0 - 3 L

Bologna Form

Oct 28 AC Milan 4 - 2 W

Oct 24 Cagliari 2 - 0 W

Oct 17 Inter 1 - 3 L

Oct 11 Lecce 2 - 1 W

Sep 19 Torino 1 - 1 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Apr 12, 2026 Bologna 2 - 0 Lecce Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Sep 28, 2025 Lecce 2 - 2 Bologna Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Feb 9, 2025 Lecce 0 - 0 Bologna Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Nov 2, 2024 Bologna 1 - 0 Lecce Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Lecce Bologna

1.23

xG per match

1.36

1.89

xG against

1.21

12.1

Shots per match

11.9

40.4

Possession, %

46.1

Goals this season

33.33

Both teams scored, %

55.56

66.67

Over 2.5, %

44.44