Levante vs Sevilla Prediction & Tips

La Liga • Round 8

Levante

Sevilla

Monday, 12 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 37% 18 bookmakers Model 38%

Probability Distribution Home (38%) / Draw (26%) / Away (36%)

Levante win (1) 38%

3.00 OddScore Pick

Sevilla win (2) 36%

2.73

Draw (X) 26%

3.35

Probability Distribution Yes — 60% | No — 40%

Both teams to score — Yes 60%

1.90

Both teams to score — No 40%

2.05

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 57% | Under — 43%

Over 2.5 goals 57%

2.23

Under 2.5 goals 43%

1.81

Both teams to score Yes — 60% vs No — 40% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 57% vs Under — 43% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 38% | Market: 33% +12.5% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The gap is small, and the data offers only a few plausible threads. The model gives Levante more room and the draw less than the market does. That could reflect the two recent head-to-head wins for Levante, or Levante's slightly higher attacking xG per match, both of which sit against their weaker league position. A market view that leans on the table, where Sevilla is fifth and Levante seventeenth, and on Levante's heavier xG conceded would fit the market placing Sevilla marginally ahead.

The market's larger weight on the draw may relate to uncertainty. Line-ups are not announced, Levante has four players injured, and Sevilla has six unavailable, two of them suspended. Levante's two goalless draws in the last five also fit a low-scoring pattern.

None of this points clearly to a single cause, and the data does not show which factors either side weighted.

Gap of 4.2 percentage points, and the two estimates favour different outcomes.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Levante host Sevilla in Round 8 of La Liga on 12 October at 19:00 UTC. The model sees an almost even contest. It gives the home side a 37.64% chance of winning, the draw 26.36% and Sevilla 36%. The table suggests a bigger gap than that. Levante are 17th after six games, with one win, two draws and three defeats and a goal difference of 8:12. Sevilla are fifth after seven games, with four wins, one draw and two defeats and a goal difference of 10:9. The bookmakers' best prices are close to the model's view: 2.86 for the home win, 3.43 for the draw and 2.75 for the away win.

The recent head-to-head favours Levante. They won 2:0 against Sevilla on 23 April and 3:0 away on 4 January. Both sides have a long list of absentees. Levante are without Álex Primo, Hugo Sotelo, Karl Etta Eyong and Unai Elgezabal, all injured. Sevilla are missing Adrià Pedrosa and Isaac Romero through suspension, and Arouna Sangante, Lucas Stassin, Rubén Vargas and Valentín Barco through injury. That is six players out for the visitors, compared with four for the hosts.

The goals markets point to an open game. The model puts both teams scoring at 60.46%. Sevilla have seen both sides score in 71.43% of their games this season, and Levante in 50%. Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 57.5%, which fits Levante's 66.67% and Sevilla's 57.14% in matches so far. Over 1.5 goals is at 79.5%, over 3.5 at 36.5% and over 4.5 at 21.84%. These are probabilities, not certainties, and with such a narrow split on the result, either team could take the points.

Levante Form

Oct 25 Real Sociedad 1 - 2 L

Oct 21 Athletic Club 3 - 1 W

Oct 16 Deportivo A Coruña 1 - 1 D

Oct 12 Sevilla 3 - 3 D

Sep 20 Villarreal 1 - 3 L

Sevilla Form

Oct 26 Osasuna 2 - 0 W

Oct 18 Real Madrid 1 - 4 L

Oct 12 Levante 3 - 3 D

Sep 19 FC Barcelona 1 - 3 L

Sep 16 Deportivo A Coruña 1 - 0 W

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Apr 23, 2026 Levante 2 - 0 Sevilla Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Jan 4, 2026 Sevilla 0 - 3 Levante Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Levante Sevilla

1.29

xG per match

1.27

1.93

xG against

1.45

11.3

Shots per match

12.3

42.7

Possession, %

41.7

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

Over 2.5, %