Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 3

Lillestrøm

Real Sociedad

Thursday, 22 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Åråsen Stadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 68% 18 bookmakers Model 42%

Probability Distribution Home (34%) / Draw (24%) / Away (42%)

Real Sociedad win (2) 42%

1.51 OddScore Pick

Lillestrøm win (1) 34%

7.90

Draw (X) 24%

5.75

Probability Distribution Yes — 62% | No — 38%

Both teams to score — Yes 62%

1.70

Both teams to score — No 38%

2.30

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 62% | Under — 38%

Over 2.5 goals 62%

1.44

Under 2.5 goals 38%

3.00

Both teams to score Yes — 62% vs No — 38% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 62% vs Under — 38% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 42% | Market: 68% -37.8% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates favour Real Sociedad, but the model gives Lillestrøm a much better chance than the bookmakers do. The data offers a few things that could account for part of that. Lillestrøm's expected goals are healthy, creating more than they concede per match, while Real Sociedad's expected goals show them conceding more than they create. A model built on those underlying numbers would tend to narrow the gap between the sides. Real Sociedad also have nine players listed as unavailable, six injured and three suspended, which a model may weigh differently from the market. Lillestrøm have only one suspension.

The data also contains features that point the other way. Lillestrøm sit 22nd after four matches with one win, while Real Sociedad's recent results include several wins. The season samples are small, and line-ups have not been announced. The data does not show how either side weights these factors, so it can only indicate where their inputs could differ.

Gap of 25.7 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards an Real Sociedad win in this fixture, with a confidence of 42%. Lillestrøm come into this one having taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 1.77 expected goals for and 1.76 against.

Real Sociedad arrive with 4-1-0 across their own last 5. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%. At the current price of 1.51 the market has this one covered, so there is no edge to take.

Lillestrøm Form

Oct 22 Real Sociedad 0 - 6 L

Oct 15 Sparta Praha 1 - 1 D

Sep 17 Torreense 1 - 2 L

Aug 27 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2 - 1 W

Aug 20 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 - 0 D

Real Sociedad Form

Oct 25 Levante 2 - 1 W

Oct 22 Lillestrøm 6 - 0 W

Oct 18 Málaga 5 - 2 W

Oct 15 Union Saint-Gilloise 1 - 1 D

Oct 11 Deportivo A Coruña 3 - 2 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Lillestrøm Real Sociedad

1.77

xG per match

1.42

1.76

xG against

1.7

12.2

Shots per match

12.3

52.8

Possession, %

Goals this season

Both teams scored, %

66.67

Over 2.5, %

66.67