Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction & Tips

Premier League • Round 10

Manchester United

Aston Villa

Sunday, 8 November 2026 — 16:30 UTC

Old Trafford

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 43% 11 bookmakers Model 43%

Probability Distribution Home (43%) / Draw (23%) / Away (34%)

Manchester United win (1) 43%

2.30 OddScore Pick

Aston Villa win (2) 34%

3.10

Draw (X) 23%

3.92

Probability Distribution Yes — 65% | No — 35%

Both teams to score — Yes 65%

1.50

Both teams to score — No 35%

2.50

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 64% | Under — 36%

Over 2.5 goals 64%

1.61

Under 2.5 goals 36%

2.30

Both teams to score Yes — 65% vs No — 35% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 64% vs Under — 36% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 43% | Market: 43% +0.4% Edge

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✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Our model leans towards a Manchester United win in this fixture, with a confidence of 43%. Manchester United come into this one having taken 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 5. The underlying numbers back that up: an average of 1.65 expected goals for and 1.2 against.

Aston Villa arrive with 4-1-0 across their own last 5. The last 4 meetings between the two produced goals at both ends 2 times. For this match the model puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%. At the current price of 2.30 that leaves a 0.4% edge over the market.

Manchester United Form

Oct 25 AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 L

Oct 21 Como 1 - 4 L

Oct 18 Leeds United 1 - 1 D

Oct 13 Atlético de Madrid 0 - 2 L

Oct 10 Tottenham Hotspur 1 - 1 D

Aston Villa Form

Oct 24 Manchester City 2 - 1 W

Oct 21 Viking 3 - 1 W

Oct 17 Newcastle United 1 - 0 W

Oct 14 Fenerbahçe 6 - 0 W

Oct 10 Brentford 2 - 2 D

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Mar 15, 2026 Manchester United 3 - 1 Aston Villa Old Trafford

Dec 21, 2025 Aston Villa 2 - 1 Manchester United Villa Park

May 25, 2025 Manchester United 2 - 0 Aston Villa Old Trafford

Oct 6, 2024 Aston Villa 0 - 0 Manchester United Villa Park

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Manchester United Aston Villa

1.65

xG per match

1.11

1.2

xG against

1.69

19.4

Shots per match

11.4

56.4

Possession, %

Goals this season

62.5

Both teams scored, %

37.5

Over 2.5, %

62.5