Monza vs Napoli Prediction & Tips

Serie A • Round 9

Monza

Napoli

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 — 19:45 UTC

U-Power Stadium

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 60% 17 bookmakers Model 41%

Probability Distribution Home (32%) / Draw (26%) / Away (41%)

Napoli win (2) 41%

1.77 OddScore Pick

Monza win (1) 32%

5.77

Draw (X) 26%

4.43

Probability Distribution Yes — 58% | No — 42%

Both teams to score — Yes 58%

1.66

Both teams to score — No 42%

2.25

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 55% | Under — 45%

Over 2.5 goals 55%

1.66

Under 2.5 goals 45%

2.40

Both teams to score Yes — 58% vs No — 42% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 55% vs Under — 45% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 41% | Market: 60% -30.6% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The gap may reflect different weighting of Monza’s home advantage and Napoli’s overall season record. Monza have won both of their home matches listed in the recent sequence, while Napoli have three wins, two draws and three losses after eight league games and sit below Monza in the table. Monza’s season goal difference is also slightly better, and their attacking and defensive expected-goal figures are relatively balanced. Those details could support a more cautious assessment of Napoli’s away chances.

Other supplied data points in the opposite direction. Monza have lost three of their last five, including all three listed away matches, and have many unavailable players, including Matteo Pessina and Patrick Cutrone. Napoli have the stronger attacking expected-goal figure, won both recent meetings, and are unbeaten in their two listed home games. Their own absences and recent mixed results could limit that effect, helping explain why the estimates differ in degree.

Gap of 18.2 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Monza host Napoli in round nine of Serie A on 28 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 UTC. Napoli enter the match in 10th place after three wins, two draws and three defeats, while Monza sit 15th with two wins, one draw and five losses. The model makes Napoli the most likely winners at 41.39%, compared with 32.46% for Monza and 26.15% for a draw. That gives the visitors an advantage, although their probability remains below 50%. Napoli also won both listed recent meetings, beating Monza 1–0 in April 2025 and 2–0 in September 2024.

The teams’ scoring records offer contrasting evidence. Monza have scored 15 goals and conceded 18 in eight league matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals each occurring in 87.5% of those games. Napoli have scored 13 and conceded 10, with both measures at 50%. The model puts both teams scoring at 57.78% and over 2.5 goals at 55.16%, suggesting a modest lean towards goals. Its 67.26% probability for under 3.5 goals provides a more restrained expectation for the total.

Both sides have several players unavailable. Monza’s absences include injured Matteo Pessina, Patrick Ciurria and Patrick Cutrone, alongside suspended Lorenzo Lucchesi and Pedro Obiang. Napoli are without injured Alessandro Buongiorno, Alex Meret, David Neres and Scott McTominay, among others. The available evidence favours Napoli, but the model leaves substantial room for either a home win or a draw.

Monza Form

Oct 28 Napoli 1 - 4 L

Oct 23 Torino 2 - 3 L

Oct 19 Cagliari 4 - 0 W

Oct 11 Lazio 1 - 3 L

Sep 18 Sassuolo 2 - 1 W

Napoli Form

Oct 28 Monza 4 - 1 W

Oct 24 Roma 3 - 3 D

Oct 20 Bodø / Glimt 4 - 3 W

Oct 17 Venezia 0 - 1 L

Oct 13 Villarreal 1 - 3 L

Head to Head History

DateHomeScoreAwayVenue

Apr 19, 2025 Monza 0 - 1 Napoli U-Power Stadium

Sep 29, 2024 Napoli 2 - 0 Monza Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Monza Napoli

1.4

xG per match

1.48

xG against

1.39

13.2

Shots per match

16.6

43.7

Possession, %

52.8

Goals this season

88.89

Both teams scored, %

55.56

88.89

Over 2.5, %

55.56