Napoli vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction & Tips

Champions League • Round 3

Napoli

Bodø / Glimt

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 56% 18 bookmakers Model 41%

Probability Distribution Home (41%) / Draw (23%) / Away (37%)

Napoli win (1) 41%

1.78 OddScore Pick

Bodø / Glimt win (2) 37%

5.00

Draw (X) 23%

4.40

Probability Distribution Yes — 61% | No — 39%

Both teams to score — Yes 61%

1.55

Both teams to score — No 39%

2.50

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 63% | Under — 37%

Over 2.5 goals 63%

1.57

Under 2.5 goals 37%

2.60

Both teams to score Yes — 61% vs No — 39% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 63% vs Under — 37% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 41% | Market: 56% -27.3% Edge

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⇄ Why the estimates differ

The model gives Napoli a clear but modest edge, while the bookmaker median makes them a much stronger favourite. The data offers a few features that could pull the two apart. Napoli's season record is winless from two games with a 1-4 goal difference, and they lost both of their last two away matches. Their expected goals against per match is also higher than their expected goals for in the underlying numbers shown, though only slightly. Nine Napoli players are listed as injured, which is a long absence list. Bodø/Glimt have the stronger run of results, with four wins in six and fifth in the table, and their expected goals figures are positive, though they lost 0-5 at Bayern. They also have eight players unavailable. A model weighting recent form and underlying numbers could land closer together than a market that may weigh other factors. The data does not show which factors the bookmakers weighted. Line-ups are not yet announced.

Gap of 15.8 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Napoli and Bodø / Glimt meet in Round 1 of the Champions League on 2026-09-08 at 19:00:00 UTC. The visiting side enters this fixture in strong form this season, having recorded three wins and one draw across four matches while scoring twelve goals and conceding six, sitting in seventh place. Every match for Bodø / Glimt this season has surpassed 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 75 percent of those games. In contrast, Napoli concluded their three recorded fixtures from last season in eleventh position with one win and two defeats, maintaining an even 5:5 goal record where 66.67 percent of matches saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals.

The statistical model points to a closely contested fixture, giving Bodø / Glimt a 39.97 percent probability of victory compared to 36.77 percent for a Napoli win and 23.26 percent for a draw. Goal projections lean toward an open encounter, reflecting an 80.55 percent probability of over 1.5 total goals, a 59.22 percent likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and a 60.37 percent chance of both teams scoring. Both squads must manage several absences due to injury. Napoli will be without Alessandro Buongiorno, Giovane, Luca Marianucci, and Scott McTominay. Meanwhile, Bodø / Glimt are missing August Mikkelsen, Daniel Bassi, Håkon Evjen, Jostein Gundersen, Odin Luras Bjortuft, and Ulrik Saltnes.

Napoli Form

Oct 28 Monza 4 - 1 W

Oct 24 Roma 3 - 3 D

Oct 20 Bodø / Glimt 4 - 3 W

Oct 17 Venezia 0 - 1 L

Oct 13 Villarreal 1 - 3 L

Bodø / Glimt Form

Oct 20 Napoli 3 - 4 L

Oct 14 Borussia Dortmund 1 - 0 W

Sep 10 FC Bayern München 0 - 5 L

Aug 25 NEC Nijmegen 3 - 0 W

Aug 19 NEC Nijmegen 3 - 1 W

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Key Stats & Team Metrics

Napoli Bodø / Glimt

1.39

xG per match

1.72

2.44

xG against

1.27

Shots per match

13.5

44.3

Possession, %

53.3

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

57.14

66.67

Over 2.5, %

85.71