NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Tips

Europa League • Round 2

NEC Nijmegen

Levski Sofia

Thursday, 15 October 2026 — 19:00 UTC

Goffertstadion

AI Prediction Markets

Market average 50% 16 bookmakers Model 42%

Probability Distribution Home (42%) / Draw (25%) / Away (33%)

NEC Nijmegen win (1) 42%

1.88 OddScore Pick

Levski Sofia win (2) 33%

4.74

Draw (X) 25%

3.79

Probability Distribution Yes — 53% | No — 47%

Both teams to score — Yes 53%

1.80

Both teams to score — No 47%

2.00

Probability Distribution Over 2.5 — 52% | Under — 48%

Over 2.5 goals 52%

2.00

Under 2.5 goals 48%

1.94

Both teams to score Yes — 53% vs No — 47% Yes

Over / Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 — 52% vs Under — 48% Over

Neural edge detected Model: 42% | Market: 50% -16.2% Edge

Bet now

⇄ Why the estimates differ

NEC's supplied numbers are weak: their last five matches include three heavy defeats, and their expected goals against per match is 3.19, with only 0.49 created. Levski's figures are less extreme, at 0.85 for and 2.09 against. A model built on underlying chance quality would see a smaller gap between the sides than one weighting home advantage and the stronger-looking fixture list, which may explain why it gives the hosts a smaller edge.

The absence lists are also long on both sides. NEC have thirteen players unavailable, including several suspended, while Levski have eight. The data doesn't show how important those players are, so it's unclear whether the market and the model weigh them differently. Line-ups aren't announced, and each season record is one match, so the sample is thin. Beyond the contrast in xG and recent results, the data doesn't clearly account for the gap.

Gap of 9.4 percentage points.

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in round 2 of the Europa League on 15 October, kicking off at 19:00 UTC. The model gives the home side the edge at 41.92%, with the draw at 25.23% and a Levski win at 32.88%. The best available home odds of 1.91 are shorter than the model alone would suggest, and the away odds of 4.4 are longer. So the market rates Levski somewhat lower than the model does.

Both teams have played once this season and lost. Levski went down 0:1, and NEC lost 0:5, which is why their single match shows over 2.5 goals at 100%. Levski's listed league position is 58 and NEC's is 73. One match each is a very small sample, so these figures say little about underlying quality.

Absences may matter more. NEC have 13 players unavailable, 7 injured and 6 suspended. Levski have 8 unavailable, 6 injured and 2 suspended. Both squads are stretched, NEC's more so, and that adds uncertainty to the home side's modest advantage.

On goals, the model puts over 1.5 at 74.91% and over 2.5 at 51.53%, so a match around the 2.5 line looks close to an even split. Over 3.5 sits at 30.55%, and both teams scoring is slightly more likely than not at 53.11%. These are probabilities, not predictions of a result, and a match with this many absentees could easily move away from them.

NEC Nijmegen Form

Oct 22 Dinamo Zagreb 4 - 2 W

Oct 15 Levski Sofia 1 - 1 D

Sep 17 Juventus 0 - 5 L

Aug 25 Bodø / Glimt 0 - 3 L

Aug 19 Bodø / Glimt 1 - 3 L

Levski Sofia Form

Oct 22 Viktoria Plzeň 2 - 1 W

Oct 15 NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 D

Sep 17 Salzburg 0 - 1 L

Aug 26 AEK Athens 0 - 4 L

Aug 18 AEK Athens 0 - 0 D

Bet now

Key Stats & Team Metrics

NEC Nijmegen Levski Sofia

1.21

xG per match

1.09

2.48

xG against

1.31

14.7

Shots per match

9.3

Possession, %

49.7

Goals this season

66.67

Both teams scored, %

66.67

Over 2.5, %

33.33