Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction & Tips

✦ AI Analysis & Neural Breakdown

Newcastle United host Aston Villa in round 7 of the Premier League, and the model sees a tight contest. It gives Newcastle a 37.98% chance of winning, the draw 26.16% and Villa 35.86%. The bookmaker prices are 2.31 for the home side, 3.86 for the draw and 3.18 for the away side. Newcastle are 11th after six games, with two wins, two draws and two defeats and a goal record of 10 scored and 13 conceded. Villa sit 16th with one win, two draws and three defeats, and have scored 6 and conceded 11.

Both sides have been involved in open games so far. Newcastle have seen both teams score in 83.33% of their matches and more than 2.5 goals in 83.33%. For Villa the figures are 50% and 66.67%. The model puts both teams scoring at 58.61%, against 41.39% for no. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56.19% and under 2.5 at 43.81%. Over 1.5 goals is at 78.63%, over 3.5 at 34.22% and over 4.5 at 20.08%.

Team news will matter, as both squads have several absentees. Newcastle are without Dan Burn, Joelinton, Sven Botman, Tino Livramento and William Osula, all injured. Villa miss Amadou Onana, Brian Madjo, Ian Maatsen, Johan Manzambi, Leon Bailey, Leon Goretzka and Modou Kéba Cissé through injury. João Gomes and Taylor Harwood-Bellis are suspended. The recent head-to-head is mixed: Villa won 2-0 in January 2026, the August 2025 meeting ended 0-0, Villa won 4-1 in April 2025 and Newcastle won 3-0 in December 2024. Given how close the probabilities are, no outcome can be treated as likely enough to rely on.