Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Tips

⇄ Why the estimates differ

The market gives Nordsjælland a clearly larger edge than the model does, and the model leaves noticeably more room for both the draw and an away win. Several things in the data could account for that. Nordsjælland's results are strong: five wins in seven, a goal tally of 18 to 4, and third place in the table. Their expected goals against, though, is high at about 2.4 per match. That is much worse than their actual goals conceded suggest. A model that weighs underlying chances may therefore rate them less dominant than one that follows results more closely. Nordsjælland also has six players unavailable, one of them suspended.

CSKA Sofia's recent run is poor, with four losses in the last five. Their expected goals figures are balanced, at about 1.5 for and 1.5 against. They also have four suspensions and one injury. Their season record covers only one match, so there is little current-season evidence about them. How heavily each side counts the absences and the thin sample is not visible in the data. Line-ups have not been announced.

Gap of 14 percentage points.