OFI vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction & Tips

⇄ Why the estimates differ

Both estimates make Leverkusen the clear favourite, but the model leaves noticeably more room for OFI and for a draw. The data points to a few things that could produce that difference. OFI's expected goals are modest at the attacking end and weak at the defensive end, which fits a heavily favoured visitor. Their results, though, include three wins and a 3-0 and two 2-0 scorelines, so a model leaning on results and goals could read them more generously than one leaning on chance quality. Leverkusen have only two matches in this season's table, so their record is a small sample. Their longer run of five wins and strong xG sit alongside a long list of absentees: twelve players are unavailable, including three suspended. OFI also miss five players. Line-ups aren't announced, so the two sides may weigh those absences differently. The data doesn't show whether either estimate accounts for them, so this is only a possible source of the gap.

Gap of 21 percentage points.